Recent high-profile defections, notably former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 move to One Nation, have lifted expectations of further realignments among sitting members ahead of the next federal cycle. The party's stronger polling in 2026 state contests, including South Australia, combined with reported outreach to figures such as Victorian Liberal Moira Deeming, sustains trader assessment of elevated crossover risk. Ongoing internal Coalition tensions and One Nation's recruitment efforts provide additional context for the current 58% implied probability on additional 2026 joins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn autre député australien en exercice rejoindra-t-il One Nation en 2026 ?
Un autre député australien en exercice rejoindra-t-il One Nation en 2026 ?
Oui
0% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
0% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent high-profile defections, notably former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 move to One Nation, have lifted expectations of further realignments among sitting members ahead of the next federal cycle. The party's stronger polling in 2026 state contests, including South Australia, combined with reported outreach to figures such as Victorian Liberal Moira Deeming, sustains trader assessment of elevated crossover risk. Ongoing internal Coalition tensions and One Nation's recruitment efforts provide additional context for the current 58% implied probability on additional 2026 joins.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Volume
$172Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent high-profile defections, notably former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 move to One Nation, have lifted expectations of further realignments among sitting members ahead of the next federal cycle. The party's stronger polling in 2026 state contests, including South Australia, combined with reported outreach to figures such as Victorian Liberal Moira Deeming, sustains trader assessment of elevated crossover risk. Ongoing internal Coalition tensions and One Nation's recruitment efforts provide additional context for the current 58% implied probability on additional 2026 joins.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$172Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-profile defections, notably former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 move to One Nation, have lifted expectations of further realignments among sitting members ahead of the next federal cycle. The party's stronger polling in 2026 state contests, including South Australia, combined with reported outreach to figures such as Victorian Liberal Moira Deeming, sustains trader assessment of elevated crossover risk. Ongoing internal Coalition tensions and One Nation's recruitment efforts provide additional context for the current 58% implied probability on additional 2026 joins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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