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icon for Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo

Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo

Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo

Tarcísio de Freitas 94%

Fernando Haddad 4.4%

Erika Hilton <1%

Kim Kataguiri <1%

Polymarket

$279,524 Vol.

Tarcísio de Freitas 94%

Fernando Haddad 4.4%

Erika Hilton <1%

Kim Kataguiri <1%

Polymarket

$279,524 Vol.

icon for Tarcísio de Freitas

Tarcísio de Freitas

$123,143 Vol.

94%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$47,232 Vol.

4%

icon for Erika Hilton

Erika Hilton

$22,704 Vol.

1%

icon for Kim Kataguiri

Kim Kataguiri

$75,777 Vol.

<1%

icon for Márcio França

Márcio França

$10,668 Vol.

<1%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent double-digit advantages in recent polls against his main challenger, Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Datafolha, show Tarcísio at 46-53% in the first round compared with 26-34% for Haddad, reflecting strong voter approval of his administration and a fragmented opposition field that includes low-support candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri. Traders price this dominance at over 90% because Tarcísio opted against a presidential bid and consolidated right-leaning support ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments like debate performances, shifts in national economic conditions, or unforeseen legal or health events remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before election day.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$279,524
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent double-digit advantages in recent polls against his main challenger, Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Datafolha, show Tarcísio at 46-53% in the first round compared with 26-34% for Haddad, reflecting strong voter approval of his administration and a fragmented opposition field that includes low-support candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri. Traders price this dominance at over 90% because Tarcísio opted against a presidential bid and consolidated right-leaning support ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments like debate performances, shifts in national economic conditions, or unforeseen legal or health events remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before election day.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$279,524
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Tarcísio de Freitas » à 94%, suivi de « Fernando Haddad » à 4%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 94¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo » a généré $279.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 27, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo » est « Tarcísio de Freitas » à 94%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Fernando Haddad » à 4%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.