Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent double-digit advantages in recent polls against his main challenger, Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Datafolha, show Tarcísio at 46-53% in the first round compared with 26-34% for Haddad, reflecting strong voter approval of his administration and a fragmented opposition field that includes low-support candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri. Traders price this dominance at over 90% because Tarcísio opted against a presidential bid and consolidated right-leaning support ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments like debate performances, shifts in national economic conditions, or unforeseen legal or health events remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,524 Vol.
$279,524 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,524 Vol.
$279,524 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$123,143 Vol.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$47,232 Vol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent double-digit advantages in recent polls against his main challenger, Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Datafolha, show Tarcísio at 46-53% in the first round compared with 26-34% for Haddad, reflecting strong voter approval of his administration and a fragmented opposition field that includes low-support candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri. Traders price this dominance at over 90% because Tarcísio opted against a presidential bid and consolidated right-leaning support ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments like debate performances, shifts in national economic conditions, or unforeseen legal or health events remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$279,524Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent double-digit advantages in recent polls against his main challenger, Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Datafolha, show Tarcísio at 46-53% in the first round compared with 26-34% for Haddad, reflecting strong voter approval of his administration and a fragmented opposition field that includes low-support candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri. Traders price this dominance at over 90% because Tarcísio opted against a presidential bid and consolidated right-leaning support ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments like debate performances, shifts in national economic conditions, or unforeseen legal or health events remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$279,524Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent double-digit advantages in recent polls against his main challenger, Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Datafolha, show Tarcísio at 46-53% in the first round compared with 26-34% for Haddad, reflecting strong voter approval of his administration and a fragmented opposition field that includes low-support candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri. Traders price this dominance at over 90% because Tarcísio opted against a presidential bid and consolidated right-leaning support ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments like debate performances, shifts in national economic conditions, or unforeseen legal or health events remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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