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Politique·Brésil

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

icon for São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Politique·Brésil

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Tarcísio de Freitas 82%

Fernando Haddad 9.5%

Kim Kataguiri 4.7%

Márcio França 2.0%

Polymarket

$20,394 Vol.

Tarcísio de Freitas 82%

Fernando Haddad 9.5%

Kim Kataguiri 4.7%

Márcio França 2.0%

Polymarket

$20,394 Vol.

icon for Tarcísio de Freitas

Tarcísio de Freitas

$10,695 Vol.

82%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$3,042 Vol.

10%

icon for Kim Kataguiri

Kim Kataguiri

$1,581 Vol.

5%

icon for Márcio França

Márcio França

$2,190 Vol.

2%

icon for Erika Hilton

Erika Hilton

$2,885 Vol.

1%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,394
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,394
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Questions fréquentes

« São Paulo Governor Election Winner » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Tarcísio de Freitas » à 82%, suivi de « Fernando Haddad » à 10%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 82¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 82% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « São Paulo Governor Election Winner » a généré $20.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 27, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « São Paulo Governor Election Winner », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « São Paulo Governor Election Winner » est « Tarcísio de Freitas » à 82%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 82% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Fernando Haddad » à 10%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « São Paulo Governor Election Winner » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.