Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, holds the strongest position in recent Real Time Big Data polling for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote, leading Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) by 6 points in simulated scenarios while winning all tested runoff matchups. Traders price Ferraço highest at 55.5 percent, reflecting his roughly 77 percent approval rating and institutional backing from the MDB-led coalition, though high undecided shares and multiple other names keep the implied probability from rising further. Pazolini’s 28.5 percent reflects his base among conservative voters and visibility as Vitória’s mayor, while lower-priced contenders such as Arnaldinho Borgo and Euclério Sampaio remain long shots pending clearer alliance patterns. Late-cycle polling shifts, formal party coalitions, or economic indicators under the incumbent could widen or narrow the gap before the runoff threshold is settled.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEspírito Santo Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur
Espírito Santo Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur
Ricardo Ferraço 56%
Lorenzo Pazolini 29%
Arnaldinho Borgo 9.1%
Sergio Vidigal 8.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 oct. 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
56%
Lorenzo Pazolini
29%
Arnaldinho Borgo
9%
Sergio Vidigal
9%
Euclério Sampaio
6%
Ricardo Ferraço 56%
Lorenzo Pazolini 29%
Arnaldinho Borgo 9.1%
Sergio Vidigal 8.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 oct. 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
$60 Vol.
56%
Lorenzo Pazolini
$120 Vol.
29%
Arnaldinho Borgo
$141 Vol.
9%
Sergio Vidigal
$37 Vol.
9%
Euclério Sampaio
$150 Vol.
6%
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, holds the strongest position in recent Real Time Big Data polling for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote, leading Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) by 6 points in simulated scenarios while winning all tested runoff matchups. Traders price Ferraço highest at 55.5 percent, reflecting his roughly 77 percent approval rating and institutional backing from the MDB-led coalition, though high undecided shares and multiple other names keep the implied probability from rising further. Pazolini’s 28.5 percent reflects his base among conservative voters and visibility as Vitória’s mayor, while lower-priced contenders such as Arnaldinho Borgo and Euclério Sampaio remain long shots pending clearer alliance patterns. Late-cycle polling shifts, formal party coalitions, or economic indicators under the incumbent could widen or narrow the gap before the runoff threshold is settled.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$508Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, holds the strongest position in recent Real Time Big Data polling for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote, leading Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) by 6 points in simulated scenarios while winning all tested runoff matchups. Traders price Ferraço highest at 55.5 percent, reflecting his roughly 77 percent approval rating and institutional backing from the MDB-led coalition, though high undecided shares and multiple other names keep the implied probability from rising further. Pazolini’s 28.5 percent reflects his base among conservative voters and visibility as Vitória’s mayor, while lower-priced contenders such as Arnaldinho Borgo and Euclério Sampaio remain long shots pending clearer alliance patterns. Late-cycle polling shifts, formal party coalitions, or economic indicators under the incumbent could widen or narrow the gap before the runoff threshold is settled.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$508Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, holds the strongest position in recent Real Time Big Data polling for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote, leading Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) by 6 points in simulated scenarios while winning all tested runoff matchups. Traders price Ferraço highest at 55.5 percent, reflecting his roughly 77 percent approval rating and institutional backing from the MDB-led coalition, though high undecided shares and multiple other names keep the implied probability from rising further. Pazolini’s 28.5 percent reflects his base among conservative voters and visibility as Vitória’s mayor, while lower-priced contenders such as Arnaldinho Borgo and Euclério Sampaio remain long shots pending clearer alliance patterns. Late-cycle polling shifts, formal party coalitions, or economic indicators under the incumbent could widen or narrow the gap before the runoff threshold is settled.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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