Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors cancellation of the France United Left primary at 59.5%, driven by persistent divisions within the Socialist Party and reluctance to commit amid internal backlash over local election alliances, as seen in March municipal results that fragmented left-wing gains despite overall advances. Marine Tondelier leads at 28% as the implied frontrunner if held, bolstered by her vocal push for a joint candidacy to counter far-right threats, though she faces internal Ecologist challenges post-municipals. François Ruffin's May 12 announcement to run independently without a primary has lifted his odds to 7.5%, highlighting organizational stalemate, while lower probabilities for Clémentine Autain and Lydie Massard reflect limited momentum ahead of the planned October 2026 vote for the 2027 presidential contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnnulé 60%
Marine Tondelier 28%
François Ruffin 8%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$47,948 Vol.
$47,948 Vol.
11 oct. 2026
Annulé
60%
Marine Tondelier
28%
François Ruffin
8%
Clémentine Autain
1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Annulé 60%
Marine Tondelier 28%
François Ruffin 8%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$47,948 Vol.
$47,948 Vol.
11 oct. 2026
Annulé
$5,605 Vol.
60%
Marine Tondelier
$26,435 Vol.
28%
François Ruffin
$10,717 Vol.
8%
Clémentine Autain
$3,782 Vol.
1%
Lydie Massard
$1,410 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors cancellation of the France United Left primary at 59.5%, driven by persistent divisions within the Socialist Party and reluctance to commit amid internal backlash over local election alliances, as seen in March municipal results that fragmented left-wing gains despite overall advances. Marine Tondelier leads at 28% as the implied frontrunner if held, bolstered by her vocal push for a joint candidacy to counter far-right threats, though she faces internal Ecologist challenges post-municipals. François Ruffin's May 12 announcement to run independently without a primary has lifted his odds to 7.5%, highlighting organizational stalemate, while lower probabilities for Clémentine Autain and Lydie Massard reflect limited momentum ahead of the planned October 2026 vote for the 2027 presidential contest.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Marché ouvert : May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$47,948Date de fin
11 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors cancellation of the France United Left primary at 59.5%, driven by persistent divisions within the Socialist Party and reluctance to commit amid internal backlash over local election alliances, as seen in March municipal results that fragmented left-wing gains despite overall advances. Marine Tondelier leads at 28% as the implied frontrunner if held, bolstered by her vocal push for a joint candidacy to counter far-right threats, though she faces internal Ecologist challenges post-municipals. François Ruffin's May 12 announcement to run independently without a primary has lifted his odds to 7.5%, highlighting organizational stalemate, while lower probabilities for Clémentine Autain and Lydie Massard reflect limited momentum ahead of the planned October 2026 vote for the 2027 presidential contest.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$47,948Date de fin
11 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors cancellation of the France United Left primary at 59.5%, driven by persistent divisions within the Socialist Party and reluctance to commit amid internal backlash over local election alliances, as seen in March municipal results that fragmented left-wing gains despite overall advances. Marine Tondelier leads at 28% as the implied frontrunner if held, bolstered by her vocal push for a joint candidacy to counter far-right threats, though she faces internal Ecologist challenges post-municipals. François Ruffin's May 12 announcement to run independently without a primary has lifted his odds to 7.5%, highlighting organizational stalemate, while lower probabilities for Clémentine Autain and Lydie Massard reflect limited momentum ahead of the planned October 2026 vote for the 2027 presidential contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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