Lula da Silva leads first-round polling averages at 38–42% ahead of the October 4 vote, placing him 5–14 points ahead of Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro at 28–35%, with other right-wing contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Recent surveys reflect this gap, supporting trader emphasis on Lula victory margins of 5–10% or 10–15%. Lula has gained among independents through expanded debt-relief programs and temporary fuel subsidies, while Flávio consolidated much of the right-wing vote despite June audio controversies and a reconciled family dispute. The two-round system and roughly seven weeks until the first round leave room for shifts, yet current polling trends align with modest rather than decisive or upset margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPremier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Lula da Silva 5-10% 37%
Lula da Silva 10-15 % 24.1%
Lula da Silva <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.7%
$322,316 Vol.
$322,316 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
24%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
37%
Lula da Silva <5%
19%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
6%
Victoire de Renan Santos
1%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Autre
2%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 37%
Lula da Silva 10-15 % 24.1%
Lula da Silva <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.7%
$322,316 Vol.
$322,316 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$12,110 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
$26,330 Vol.
24%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$18,031 Vol.
37%
Lula da Silva <5%
$19,625 Vol.
19%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
$6,355 Vol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$6,071 Vol.
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$10,258 Vol.
6%
Victoire de Renan Santos
$210,825 Vol.
1%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
$3,532 Vol.
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
$4,155 Vol.
<1%
Autre
$5,022 Vol.
2%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva leads first-round polling averages at 38–42% ahead of the October 4 vote, placing him 5–14 points ahead of Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro at 28–35%, with other right-wing contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Recent surveys reflect this gap, supporting trader emphasis on Lula victory margins of 5–10% or 10–15%. Lula has gained among independents through expanded debt-relief programs and temporary fuel subsidies, while Flávio consolidated much of the right-wing vote despite June audio controversies and a reconciled family dispute. The two-round system and roughly seven weeks until the first round leave room for shifts, yet current polling trends align with modest rather than decisive or upset margins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$322,316Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva leads first-round polling averages at 38–42% ahead of the October 4 vote, placing him 5–14 points ahead of Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro at 28–35%, with other right-wing contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Recent surveys reflect this gap, supporting trader emphasis on Lula victory margins of 5–10% or 10–15%. Lula has gained among independents through expanded debt-relief programs and temporary fuel subsidies, while Flávio consolidated much of the right-wing vote despite June audio controversies and a reconciled family dispute. The two-round system and roughly seven weeks until the first round leave room for shifts, yet current polling trends align with modest rather than decisive or upset margins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$322,316Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lula da Silva leads first-round polling averages at 38–42% ahead of the October 4 vote, placing him 5–14 points ahead of Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro at 28–35%, with other right-wing contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Recent surveys reflect this gap, supporting trader emphasis on Lula victory margins of 5–10% or 10–15%. Lula has gained among independents through expanded debt-relief programs and temporary fuel subsidies, while Flávio consolidated much of the right-wing vote despite June audio controversies and a reconciled family dispute. The two-round system and roughly seven weeks until the first round leave room for shifts, yet current polling trends align with modest rather than decisive or upset margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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