Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, with both in the low-to-mid 40s percent range while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Multiple September surveys indicate the race has tightened, producing near-ties in simulated runoff matchups on October 25. Brazil’s two-round system advances only the top two finishers unless one secures an outright majority. Key variables include undecided voters, regional turnout patterns, and any late campaign developments or institutional rulings that could shift support among the roughly 160 million eligible voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?
Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?
$623,950 Vol.
3 oct. 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
96%
Renan Santos
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$623,950 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$280,143 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$107,412 Vol.
96%
Renan Santos
$26,151 Vol.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,775 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$833 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$17,749 Vol.
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,434 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$86,584 Vol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,870 Vol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, with both in the low-to-mid 40s percent range while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Multiple September surveys indicate the race has tightened, producing near-ties in simulated runoff matchups on October 25. Brazil’s two-round system advances only the top two finishers unless one secures an outright majority. Key variables include undecided voters, regional turnout patterns, and any late campaign developments or institutional rulings that could shift support among the roughly 160 million eligible voters.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
Volume
$623,950Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, with both in the low-to-mid 40s percent range while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Multiple September surveys indicate the race has tightened, producing near-ties in simulated runoff matchups on October 25. Brazil’s two-round system advances only the top two finishers unless one secures an outright majority. Key variables include undecided voters, regional turnout patterns, and any late campaign developments or institutional rulings that could shift support among the roughly 160 million eligible voters.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$623,950Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, with both in the low-to-mid 40s percent range while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Multiple September surveys indicate the race has tightened, producing near-ties in simulated runoff matchups on October 25. Brazil’s two-round system advances only the top two finishers unless one secures an outright majority. Key variables include undecided voters, regional turnout patterns, and any late campaign developments or institutional rulings that could shift support among the roughly 160 million eligible voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Un candidat à la présidence gagnera-t-il dès le premier tour de l'élection au Brésil ?
6%
Oui
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
77%
Oui
Flávio Bolsonaro terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
77%
Oui
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes