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World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

$406,462 Vol.

4 oct. 2026
Polymarket

$406,462 Vol.

Polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$188,433 Vol.

95%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$37,148 Vol.

66%

Renan Santos

$64 Vol.

22%

Ronaldo Caiado

$90 Vol.

19%

Romeu Zema

$136 Vol.

11%

Fernando Haddad

$59,526 Vol.

6%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$28,196 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$12,829 Vol.

2%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$80,040 Vol.

2%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the leading contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, with recent polling showing them neck-and-neck in runoff matchups amid rising undecided voters. A May-June scandal involving audios of Flávio soliciting funds from a banker under fraud investigation has eroded his support and reopened questions about who will consolidate the right-wing vote. Other registered figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register low single digits but could influence second-place positioning if opposition fragmentation persists. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility continues to shape the field. Official candidacies are due in July, with the runoff—if required—set for October 25; voter concerns over crime, corruption, and fiscal policy will likely determine which two candidates clear the threshold.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$406,462
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the leading contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, with recent polling showing them neck-and-neck in runoff matchups amid rising undecided voters. A May-June scandal involving audios of Flávio soliciting funds from a banker under fraud investigation has eroded his support and reopened questions about who will consolidate the right-wing vote. Other registered figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register low single digits but could influence second-place positioning if opposition fragmentation persists. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility continues to shape the field. Official candidacies are due in July, with the runoff—if required—set for October 25; voter concerns over crime, corruption, and fiscal policy will likely determine which two candidates clear the threshold.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$406,462
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 95%, suivi de « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 66%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 95¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 95% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? » a généré $406.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 18, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? » est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 95%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 95% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 66%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.