Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc holds a narrow but decisive lead over the Tidö parties in the ongoing count for the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, with projections showing the opposition on track for 176 seats to the Tidö bloc’s 173. SVT’s election model now places the probability of a Tidö reversal at under 0.1 percent after late advance and overseas ballots narrowed the gap to as little as one seat before the opposition pulled ahead again. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition maintaining an edge on cost-of-living and other issues despite a tightening race, and the current seat arithmetic aligns with trader pricing that the opposition will finish three or four seats ahead. Remaining districts and final verification by the Election Authority could still produce minor adjustments, though analysts view large swings as improbable at this stage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOpposition par 3–4 96.7%
Opposition par 1–2 1.5%
Tidö par 1–2 <1%
Opposition par 5–6 <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Opposition par 7+
<1%
Opposition par 5–6
<1%
Opposition par 3–4
97%
Opposition par 1–2
1%
Tidö par 1–2
1%
Tidö par 3 à 4
<1%
Tidö par 5+
<1%
Opposition par 3–4 96.7%
Opposition par 1–2 1.5%
Tidö par 1–2 <1%
Opposition par 5–6 <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Opposition par 7+
$710 Vol.
<1%
Opposition par 5–6
$205 Vol.
<1%
Opposition par 3–4
$2,359 Vol.
97%
Opposition par 1–2
$1,807 Vol.
1%
Tidö par 1–2
$838 Vol.
1%
Tidö par 3 à 4
$426 Vol.
<1%
Tidö par 5+
$29 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc holds a narrow but decisive lead over the Tidö parties in the ongoing count for the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, with projections showing the opposition on track for 176 seats to the Tidö bloc’s 173. SVT’s election model now places the probability of a Tidö reversal at under 0.1 percent after late advance and overseas ballots narrowed the gap to as little as one seat before the opposition pulled ahead again. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition maintaining an edge on cost-of-living and other issues despite a tightening race, and the current seat arithmetic aligns with trader pricing that the opposition will finish three or four seats ahead. Remaining districts and final verification by the Election Authority could still produce minor adjustments, though analysts view large swings as improbable at this stage.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$6,374Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc holds a narrow but decisive lead over the Tidö parties in the ongoing count for the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, with projections showing the opposition on track for 176 seats to the Tidö bloc’s 173. SVT’s election model now places the probability of a Tidö reversal at under 0.1 percent after late advance and overseas ballots narrowed the gap to as little as one seat before the opposition pulled ahead again. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition maintaining an edge on cost-of-living and other issues despite a tightening race, and the current seat arithmetic aligns with trader pricing that the opposition will finish three or four seats ahead. Remaining districts and final verification by the Election Authority could still produce minor adjustments, though analysts view large swings as improbable at this stage.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$6,374Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc holds a narrow but decisive lead over the Tidö parties in the ongoing count for the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, with projections showing the opposition on track for 176 seats to the Tidö bloc’s 173. SVT’s election model now places the probability of a Tidö reversal at under 0.1 percent after late advance and overseas ballots narrowed the gap to as little as one seat before the opposition pulled ahead again. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition maintaining an edge on cost-of-living and other issues despite a tightening race, and the current seat arithmetic aligns with trader pricing that the opposition will finish three or four seats ahead. Remaining districts and final verification by the Election Authority could still produce minor adjustments, though analysts view large swings as improbable at this stage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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