Augusto Cury, the Avante candidate and first-time presidential contender, rose sharply in late August 2026 through social media growth and national TV debates, reaching double digits in some surveys before stabilizing in the mid-single digits amid the dominant Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro contest. Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and others in early-to-mid September consistently places him third at 6-8 percent, drawing support from independents seeking an alternative to polarization. Traders assign the highest probability to a 6 percent or higher first-round share on October 4 because his current trajectory and visibility exceed the lower bins, though final voter turnout, undecided shifts, and any late campaign dynamics could still compress or lift the result.