**Traders assign an 82.5% probability to Alexandre de Moraes remaining on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional and procedural hurdles despite intense recent pressure.** Allegations tied to the Banco Master fraud investigation—centered on messages with jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro and a multimillion-real contract involving de Moraes’s wife’s law firm—have triggered dozens of Senate impeachment petitions, editorials from major outlets urging resignation or removal, conservative protests, and internal court friction with Justice André Mendonça. Chief Justice Edson Fachin has reassigned the fake-news inquiry and the court postponed a September 15 session on opening a probe into de Moraes. However, STF justices hold tenure until age 75, Senate impeachment requires a two-thirds majority after due process, and the Senate president controls petition admissibility. These structural safeguards, combined with the court’s handling of the dispute internally, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
18% chance
$87,593 Vol.
$87,593 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
18% chance
$87,593 Vol.
$87,593 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign an 82.5% probability to Alexandre de Moraes remaining on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional and procedural hurdles despite intense recent pressure.** Allegations tied to the Banco Master fraud investigation—centered on messages with jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro and a multimillion-real contract involving de Moraes’s wife’s law firm—have triggered dozens of Senate impeachment petitions, editorials from major outlets urging resignation or removal, conservative protests, and internal court friction with Justice André Mendonça. Chief Justice Edson Fachin has reassigned the fake-news inquiry and the court postponed a September 15 session on opening a probe into de Moraes. However, STF justices hold tenure until age 75, Senate impeachment requires a two-thirds majority after due process, and the Senate president controls petition admissibility. These structural safeguards, combined with the court’s handling of the dispute internally, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$87,593Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign an 82.5% probability to Alexandre de Moraes remaining on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional and procedural hurdles despite intense recent pressure.** Allegations tied to the Banco Master fraud investigation—centered on messages with jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro and a multimillion-real contract involving de Moraes’s wife’s law firm—have triggered dozens of Senate impeachment petitions, editorials from major outlets urging resignation or removal, conservative protests, and internal court friction with Justice André Mendonça. Chief Justice Edson Fachin has reassigned the fake-news inquiry and the court postponed a September 15 session on opening a probe into de Moraes. However, STF justices hold tenure until age 75, Senate impeachment requires a two-thirds majority after due process, and the Senate president controls petition admissibility. These structural safeguards, combined with the court’s handling of the dispute internally, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$87,593Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 82.5% probability to Alexandre de Moraes remaining on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional and procedural hurdles despite intense recent pressure.** Allegations tied to the Banco Master fraud investigation—centered on messages with jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro and a multimillion-real contract involving de Moraes’s wife’s law firm—have triggered dozens of Senate impeachment petitions, editorials from major outlets urging resignation or removal, conservative protests, and internal court friction with Justice André Mendonça. Chief Justice Edson Fachin has reassigned the fake-news inquiry and the court postponed a September 15 session on opening a probe into de Moraes. However, STF justices hold tenure until age 75, Senate impeachment requires a two-thirds majority after due process, and the Senate president controls petition admissibility. These structural safeguards, combined with the court’s handling of the dispute internally, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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