Brazilian Senate rules require a two-thirds supermajority for any Supreme Federal Court impeachment, a threshold never met in the modern era, while current legislative arithmetic leaves insufficient support for removal proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes. Recent developments reinforce this stability: in early May 2026 Moraes suspended implementation of a new sentencing law that would have shortened Jair Bolsonaro’s prison term, a ruling now pending full-court review that underscores his continued institutional authority. U.S. sanctions imposed on him in 2025 were lifted by December, reducing external diplomatic pressure, and no formal Senate calendar advance has occurred despite scattered opposition petitions. Traders therefore assign an 85 percent probability that Moraes remains in office through year-end, reflecting both procedural barriers and the absence of any catalyst capable of shifting the required coalition.