Traders assign the highest probability to fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during May 19-26, reflecting his established pattern of infrequent direct activity on official channels outside periods of acute crisis or major policy announcements. Historical records indicate routine weekly output often falls below this threshold absent scheduled addresses, regional escalations, or domestic developments requiring immediate statements. With no upcoming summits, legislative votes, or confirmed diplomatic initiatives currently positioned to trigger additional messages, the market consensus aligns with baseline communication volumes. Any unforeseen event such as border tensions or leadership health updates within the resolution window could elevate totals, though current conditions favor continuity in restrained posting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourKhamenei # posts 19 mai - 26 mai 2026 ?
Khamenei # posts 19 mai - 26 mai 2026 ?
<5 71%
5-9 26%
60+ 18.7%
10-14 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
26 mai 2026
<5
71%
5-9
26%
10-14
17%
15-19
1%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
5%
50-54
16%
55-59
16%
60+
19%
<5 71%
5-9 26%
60+ 18.7%
10-14 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
26 mai 2026
<5
$28 Vol.
71%
5-9
$5 Vol.
26%
10-14
$5 Vol.
17%
15-19
$10 Vol.
1%
20-24
$10 Vol.
1%
25-29
$10 Vol.
1%
30-34
$10 Vol.
1%
35-39
$10 Vol.
1%
40-44
$10 Vol.
1%
45-49
$25 Vol.
5%
50-54
$25 Vol.
16%
55-59
$30 Vol.
16%
60+
$30 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the highest probability to fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during May 19-26, reflecting his established pattern of infrequent direct activity on official channels outside periods of acute crisis or major policy announcements. Historical records indicate routine weekly output often falls below this threshold absent scheduled addresses, regional escalations, or domestic developments requiring immediate statements. With no upcoming summits, legislative votes, or confirmed diplomatic initiatives currently positioned to trigger additional messages, the market consensus aligns with baseline communication volumes. Any unforeseen event such as border tensions or leadership health updates within the resolution window could elevate totals, though current conditions favor continuity in restrained posting.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$208Date de fin
26 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/khamenei_irThis market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the highest probability to fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during May 19-26, reflecting his established pattern of infrequent direct activity on official channels outside periods of acute crisis or major policy announcements. Historical records indicate routine weekly output often falls below this threshold absent scheduled addresses, regional escalations, or domestic developments requiring immediate statements. With no upcoming summits, legislative votes, or confirmed diplomatic initiatives currently positioned to trigger additional messages, the market consensus aligns with baseline communication volumes. Any unforeseen event such as border tensions or leadership health updates within the resolution window could elevate totals, though current conditions favor continuity in restrained posting.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$208Date de fin
26 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/khamenei_irTraders assign the highest probability to fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during May 19-26, reflecting his established pattern of infrequent direct activity on official channels outside periods of acute crisis or major policy announcements. Historical records indicate routine weekly output often falls below this threshold absent scheduled addresses, regional escalations, or domestic developments requiring immediate statements. With no upcoming summits, legislative votes, or confirmed diplomatic initiatives currently positioned to trigger additional messages, the market consensus aligns with baseline communication volumes. Any unforeseen event such as border tensions or leadership health updates within the resolution window could elevate totals, though current conditions favor continuity in restrained posting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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