Traders assign near-certain probability against an Iranian regime collapse by May 31 because no major internal unrest, leadership crisis, or external military pressure has emerged in the past month to challenge the government's control. Authorities have maintained order through established security measures amid ongoing economic pressures and limited protests, with no signs of coordinated opposition or defections capable of rapid escalation. Diplomatic channels and sanctions regimes continue without triggering the sudden breakdown needed for such an outcome in the remaining timeframe. Historical patterns of regime resilience in similar periods of strain further support this consensus, though an unforeseen trigger such as widespread elite fractures or sudden mass mobilization could still introduce volatility before the deadline.