Iran’s next presidential election remains scheduled for 2028 under the four-year constitutional term of incumbent Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in the 2024 snap vote following Ebrahim Raisi’s death. As of late August 2026, no constitutional triggers such as presidential incapacity, resignation, or Assembly of Experts action have materialized to force an earlier vote. The February 2026 conflict and subsequent selection of a new Supreme Leader did not alter the presidential timeline or prompt early balloting, despite economic protests and leadership transition pressures. Traders price low probability of an unscheduled election by any near-term cutoff because the Guardian Council and executive branches have shown no procedural movement toward registration, campaigning, or polling before the standard cycle. Late developments such as sustained unrest or further institutional vacancies could still shift implied probabilities within the resolution window.