This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 9 2026
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries
6 surges to 21%15%
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries could climb toward six
Apr 25 2026
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the
8 dips to 1%2%
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the likelihood of reaching eight different countries, pushing the
Apr 15 2026
Israel and Hezbollah exchange strikes; Israeli airstrikes destroy key infrastructure in southern Lebanon
7 dips to 2%2%
Continued fighting in Lebanon without new countries involved pushed the probability back down.
Apr 8 2026
Israel launches its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, hitting over 100 Hezbollah targets including in Beirut, disrupting the Iran war ceasefire
10 rises to 2%1%
The escalation in Lebanon added to the count of countries struck but still far from 10, causing minor.
Mar 28 2026
Houthis in Yemen resume ballistic missile attacks against Israel, marking a new front in the conflict and expanding Israel's strike geography
10 rises to 2%1%
The Houthi attacks and Israel's responses in Yemen added another country to the list but did not approach 10 countries.
Mar 27 2026
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 37%12%
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” includes Qatar)
Mar 23 2026
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second
6 jumps to 23%12%
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second confirmed foreign country hit
Mar 21 2026
A failed Israeli missile over the Red Sea is intercepted by Saudi air‑defences;
4 drops to 36%8%
because the missile never impacted ground territory, analysts downgrade the “new country” count, causing a sharp drop
Mar 20 2026
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing
9 dips to 1%3%
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing Syria as a new country struck and further lowering the market’s “Yes” probability.
Mar 16 2026
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 25%5%
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” notes Yemen attacks)
Mar 8 2026
Israel carries out broad-scale airstrikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran, intensifying the campaign against Iran's military capabilities
10 dips to 1%1%
This reinforced the focus on Iran rather than expanding to many countries, further reducing the chance of strikes in 10 countries.
Mar 1 2026
Israeli Navy kills Hezbollah Southern Front commander in Beirut, intensifying Lebanon conflict but no new countries targeted
7 jumps to 7%5%
This high-profile strike in Lebanon increased conflict intensity but did not expand the number of countries struck.
Feb 28 2026
Israel and United States launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites
10 rises to 2%2%
The start of focused strikes on Iran and limited other countries indicated a concentrated conflict, lowering the probability of Israel striking 10 different countries.
Feb 28 2026
United States and Israel begin coordinated airstrikes on Iran, hitting multiple missile‑production facilities;
6 surges to 25%23%
the operation is reported as the first direct Israeli strike on Iranian soil in the war
Feb 23 2026
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the
8 rises to 3%2%
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the tally might approach eight, causing a short‑term
Feb 22 2026
Hezbollah resumes rocket strikes on Israel; Israel responds with airstrikes across Lebanon including Beirut
7 rises to 6%1%
Renewed conflict in Lebanon and Iran-related escalation maintained some upward pressure on the probability.
Feb 9 2026
Israel and US launch war against Iran and assassinate Iranian supreme leader, triggering regional conflict including strikes in Lebanon and Iran
7 jumps to 8%6%
The outbreak of war with Iran and expanded strikes raised the chance of Israel striking multiple countries, causing a
Jan 21 2026
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on the Syria‑Lebanon frontier, the first foreign‑country strike of the year, adding Lebanon to the tally and sharply reducing the odds of reaching nine different target countries.
Jan 15 2026
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third
8 dips to 1%1%
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third foreign country to the count; the market reacted with a brief rise that soon faded as no further new‑country attacks were reported.
Jan 10 2026
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked
5 jumps to 15%9%
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”)
Jan 5 2026
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army
3 drops to 38%7%
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army deployments
Dec 24 2025
Israel carries out multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure amid disarmament deadline
7 dips to 2%1%
Continued strikes in Lebanon reinforced the focus on existing conflict zones rather than new countries, keeping the probability low.
Dec 9 2025
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise
4 rises to 13%3%
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise further
Nov 28 2025
Israeli forces raid Beit Jinn in southern Syria, killing at least 13 people including two children, after locals resisted the incursion;
3 plunges to 20%27%
the Israeli military targeted suspected Islamist militants and used air support during withdrawal
Nov 23 2025
Israel kills senior Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike, escalating tensions in Lebanon but not expanding to new countries
7 plunges to 4%40%
This strike in Beirut marked a significant escalation in Lebanon but did not indicate new countries being targeted, contributing to the sharp drop in probability.
Nov 22 2025
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike,
8 dips to 2%1%
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike, nudging the odds upward before the market steadied at low levels.
Nov 19 2025
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets
8 dips to 3%2%
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets inside Syrian territory, confirming another cross‑border strike and causing a modest uptick that quickly receded.
Nov 9 2025
Israel bombs Hamas headquarters in Qatar targeting Hamas leadership, marking cross-border strikes beyond immediate neighbors
10 plunges to 5%42%
This event showed Israel striking outside its immediate borders but limited to a few countries, reducing the likelihood of 10 countries being struck in 2026.
May 31 2025
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria)
8 dips to 5%3%
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria) added another foreign country to the tally, briefly boosting the market before the
Feb 10 2025
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the
8 plunges to 8%42%
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the Syria‑Lebanon border, marking the first reported Israeli strike on Lebanese soil in 2026‑type forecasting and prompting a sharp rise in the “8‑countries” probability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 9 2026
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries
6 surges to 21%15%
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries could climb toward six
Apr 25 2026
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the
8 dips to 1%2%
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the likelihood of reaching eight different countries, pushing the
Apr 15 2026
Israel and Hezbollah exchange strikes; Israeli airstrikes destroy key infrastructure in southern Lebanon
7 dips to 2%2%
Continued fighting in Lebanon without new countries involved pushed the probability back down.
Apr 8 2026
Israel launches its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, hitting over 100 Hezbollah targets including in Beirut, disrupting the Iran war ceasefire
10 rises to 2%1%
The escalation in Lebanon added to the count of countries struck but still far from 10, causing minor.
Mar 28 2026
Houthis in Yemen resume ballistic missile attacks against Israel, marking a new front in the conflict and expanding Israel's strike geography
10 rises to 2%1%
The Houthi attacks and Israel's responses in Yemen added another country to the list but did not approach 10 countries.
Mar 27 2026
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 37%12%
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” includes Qatar)
Mar 23 2026
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second
6 jumps to 23%12%
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second confirmed foreign country hit
Mar 21 2026
A failed Israeli missile over the Red Sea is intercepted by Saudi air‑defences;
4 drops to 36%8%
because the missile never impacted ground territory, analysts downgrade the “new country” count, causing a sharp drop
Mar 20 2026
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing
9 dips to 1%3%
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing Syria as a new country struck and further lowering the market’s “Yes” probability.
Mar 16 2026
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 25%5%
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” notes Yemen attacks)
Mar 8 2026
Israel carries out broad-scale airstrikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran, intensifying the campaign against Iran's military capabilities
10 dips to 1%1%
This reinforced the focus on Iran rather than expanding to many countries, further reducing the chance of strikes in 10 countries.
Mar 1 2026
Israeli Navy kills Hezbollah Southern Front commander in Beirut, intensifying Lebanon conflict but no new countries targeted
7 jumps to 7%5%
This high-profile strike in Lebanon increased conflict intensity but did not expand the number of countries struck.
Feb 28 2026
Israel and United States launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites
10 rises to 2%2%
The start of focused strikes on Iran and limited other countries indicated a concentrated conflict, lowering the probability of Israel striking 10 different countries.
Feb 28 2026
United States and Israel begin coordinated airstrikes on Iran, hitting multiple missile‑production facilities;
6 surges to 25%23%
the operation is reported as the first direct Israeli strike on Iranian soil in the war
Feb 23 2026
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the
8 rises to 3%2%
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the tally might approach eight, causing a short‑term
Feb 22 2026
Hezbollah resumes rocket strikes on Israel; Israel responds with airstrikes across Lebanon including Beirut
7 rises to 6%1%
Renewed conflict in Lebanon and Iran-related escalation maintained some upward pressure on the probability.
Feb 9 2026
Israel and US launch war against Iran and assassinate Iranian supreme leader, triggering regional conflict including strikes in Lebanon and Iran
7 jumps to 8%6%
The outbreak of war with Iran and expanded strikes raised the chance of Israel striking multiple countries, causing a
Jan 21 2026
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on the Syria‑Lebanon frontier, the first foreign‑country strike of the year, adding Lebanon to the tally and sharply reducing the odds of reaching nine different target countries.
Jan 15 2026
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third
8 dips to 1%1%
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third foreign country to the count; the market reacted with a brief rise that soon faded as no further new‑country attacks were reported.
Jan 10 2026
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked
5 jumps to 15%9%
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”)
Jan 5 2026
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army
3 drops to 38%7%
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army deployments
Dec 24 2025
Israel carries out multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure amid disarmament deadline
7 dips to 2%1%
Continued strikes in Lebanon reinforced the focus on existing conflict zones rather than new countries, keeping the probability low.
Dec 9 2025
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise
4 rises to 13%3%
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise further
Nov 28 2025
Israeli forces raid Beit Jinn in southern Syria, killing at least 13 people including two children, after locals resisted the incursion;
3 plunges to 20%27%
the Israeli military targeted suspected Islamist militants and used air support during withdrawal
Nov 23 2025
Israel kills senior Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike, escalating tensions in Lebanon but not expanding to new countries
7 plunges to 4%40%
This strike in Beirut marked a significant escalation in Lebanon but did not indicate new countries being targeted, contributing to the sharp drop in probability.
Nov 22 2025
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike,
8 dips to 2%1%
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike, nudging the odds upward before the market steadied at low levels.
Nov 19 2025
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets
8 dips to 3%2%
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets inside Syrian territory, confirming another cross‑border strike and causing a modest uptick that quickly receded.
Nov 9 2025
Israel bombs Hamas headquarters in Qatar targeting Hamas leadership, marking cross-border strikes beyond immediate neighbors
10 plunges to 5%42%
This event showed Israel striking outside its immediate borders but limited to a few countries, reducing the likelihood of 10 countries being struck in 2026.
May 31 2025
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria)
8 dips to 5%3%
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria) added another foreign country to the tally, briefly boosting the market before the
Feb 10 2025
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the
8 plunges to 8%42%
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the Syria‑Lebanon border, marking the first reported Israeli strike on Lebanese soil in 2026‑type forecasting and prompting a sharp rise in the “8‑countries” probability.
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Questions fréquentes
« Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 16 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 5 » à 36%, suivi de « 4 » à 30%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 36¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 36% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » a généré $6.7 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 13, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? », parcourez les 16 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » est « 5 » à 36%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 36% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 4 » à 30%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $6.7 million échangés sur « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 36¢ pour « 5 » sur le marché « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 36% que « 5 » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 36¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 64¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Dec 31, 2026. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » a une communauté active de 511 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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