US military operations against Iran, initiated with joint strikes on February 28, 2026, that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites, have continued amid cycles of ceasefires, a June MOU on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access, and renewed clashes over shipping routes through July and early August. No congressional declaration has occurred, consistent with the constitutional requirement that only Congress holds war-declaring authority and with the absence of such formal actions since 1942. Trader positioning reflects the low historical base rate for explicit declarations, even during sustained executive-led engagements, alongside ongoing diplomatic channels mediated by Pakistan and Qatar and risks of further escalation tied to Hormuz control or proxy dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ?
Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ?
$7,763,661 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre
3%
$7,763,661 Vol.
31 décembre
$791,026 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iran, initiated with joint strikes on February 28, 2026, that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites, have continued amid cycles of ceasefires, a June MOU on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access, and renewed clashes over shipping routes through July and early August. No congressional declaration has occurred, consistent with the constitutional requirement that only Congress holds war-declaring authority and with the absence of such formal actions since 1942. Trader positioning reflects the low historical base rate for explicit declarations, even during sustained executive-led engagements, alongside ongoing diplomatic channels mediated by Pakistan and Qatar and risks of further escalation tied to Hormuz control or proxy dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,763,661Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iran, initiated with joint strikes on February 28, 2026, that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites, have continued amid cycles of ceasefires, a June MOU on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access, and renewed clashes over shipping routes through July and early August. No congressional declaration has occurred, consistent with the constitutional requirement that only Congress holds war-declaring authority and with the absence of such formal actions since 1942. Trader positioning reflects the low historical base rate for explicit declarations, even during sustained executive-led engagements, alongside ongoing diplomatic channels mediated by Pakistan and Qatar and risks of further escalation tied to Hormuz control or proxy dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,763,661Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military operations against Iran, initiated with joint strikes on February 28, 2026, that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites, have continued amid cycles of ceasefires, a June MOU on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access, and renewed clashes over shipping routes through July and early August. No congressional declaration has occurred, consistent with the constitutional requirement that only Congress holds war-declaring authority and with the absence of such formal actions since 1942. Trader positioning reflects the low historical base rate for explicit declarations, even during sustained executive-led engagements, alongside ongoing diplomatic channels mediated by Pakistan and Qatar and risks of further escalation tied to Hormuz control or proxy dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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