The Islamic Republic consolidated power after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, with security forces containing protests and preventing regime collapse. Reza Pahlavi, long in exile as a prominent opposition voice advocating secular democratic transition, has positioned himself for a transitional role but faces fragmented opposition alliances, donor dissatisfaction, limited domestic polling support in the one-third to under-half range, and absence of strong international endorsement. These structural barriers, combined with the regime's demonstrated resilience through mid-2026, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 96.9% probability against Pahlavi assuming de facto leadership by year-end. Late escalations, coordinated internal uprisings, or unexpected power-sharing deals remain narrow pathways that could still shift conditions before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourReza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Reza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
3% chance
$11,700,859 Vol.
$11,700,859 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$11,700,859 Vol.
$11,700,859 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic consolidated power after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, with security forces containing protests and preventing regime collapse. Reza Pahlavi, long in exile as a prominent opposition voice advocating secular democratic transition, has positioned himself for a transitional role but faces fragmented opposition alliances, donor dissatisfaction, limited domestic polling support in the one-third to under-half range, and absence of strong international endorsement. These structural barriers, combined with the regime's demonstrated resilience through mid-2026, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 96.9% probability against Pahlavi assuming de facto leadership by year-end. Late escalations, coordinated internal uprisings, or unexpected power-sharing deals remain narrow pathways that could still shift conditions before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$11,700,859Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic consolidated power after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, with security forces containing protests and preventing regime collapse. Reza Pahlavi, long in exile as a prominent opposition voice advocating secular democratic transition, has positioned himself for a transitional role but faces fragmented opposition alliances, donor dissatisfaction, limited domestic polling support in the one-third to under-half range, and absence of strong international endorsement. These structural barriers, combined with the regime's demonstrated resilience through mid-2026, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 96.9% probability against Pahlavi assuming de facto leadership by year-end. Late escalations, coordinated internal uprisings, or unexpected power-sharing deals remain narrow pathways that could still shift conditions before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,700,859Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic consolidated power after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, with security forces containing protests and preventing regime collapse. Reza Pahlavi, long in exile as a prominent opposition voice advocating secular democratic transition, has positioned himself for a transitional role but faces fragmented opposition alliances, donor dissatisfaction, limited domestic polling support in the one-third to under-half range, and absence of strong international endorsement. These structural barriers, combined with the regime's demonstrated resilience through mid-2026, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 96.9% probability against Pahlavi assuming de facto leadership by year-end. Late escalations, coordinated internal uprisings, or unexpected power-sharing deals remain narrow pathways that could still shift conditions before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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