Trader consensus prices near-certainty against a Kurdish declaration of independence from Iran by the June 30, 2026 resolution date. The February 2026 formation of the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan emphasized regime overthrow and self-determination rather than secession, while Iranian security forces conducted targeted operations that dismantled militant networks by late April without triggering unified separatist moves. Fragmented opposition groups operate without centralized command, sufficient armed capacity, or external recognition inside a unitary state structure, and no major developments have shifted these constraints in the past month. Realistic changes could still arise from full regime collapse, sustained foreign military intervention, or a sudden coordinated uprising that overcomes internal divisions and secures territorial control.