Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, including a recent Iranian rejection of a US draft memorandum of understanding on June 9 followed by plans for a counteroffer via Omani mediators, remain central to rial volatility. The draft covers nuclear limits, potential oil sanctions waivers, dilution of enriched uranium stocks, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with details to be negotiated over 60 days if agreed. Fresh US sanctions targeting Iran's energy smuggling networks and digital asset exchanges for sanctions evasion, announced in early June 2026, add pressure amid persistent restrictions on oil exports and foreign exchange access. Domestic factors including chronic budget deficits, high inflation, and eroded market confidence continue to support rial depreciation in parallel markets, where rates have recently hovered near or above 1.7 million IRR per USD. Any tangible progress toward sanctions relief or escalation in diplomatic or military tensions could shift trader assessments of whether the USD crosses key rial thresholds by the June 30 resolution date.