**No new country is expected to join the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, consistent with the 72% implied probability on “No.”** Diplomatic momentum has slowed since Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge the same year. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a position reaffirmed in recent months amid ongoing regional tensions. President Trump’s May 2026 public calls for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to join produced no immediate follow-through or scheduled signings. Syria and Lebanon remain distant due to unresolved bilateral issues and domestic constraints. With the July 31 deadline now weeks away and no active negotiations or announcements indicating an imminent agreement, trader consensus reflects the absence of short-term catalysts capable of overcoming these structural barriers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**No new country is expected to join the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, consistent with the 72% implied probability on “No.”**
Diplomatic momentum has slowed since Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge the same year. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a position reaffirmed in recent months amid ongoing regional tensions. President Trump’s May 2026 public calls for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to join produced no immediate follow-through or scheduled signings. Syria and Lebanon remain distant due to unresolved bilateral issues and domestic constraints. With the July 31 deadline now weeks away and no active negotiations or announcements indicating an imminent agreement, trader consensus reflects the absence of short-term catalysts capable of overcoming these structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 3:10 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 3:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**No new country is expected to join the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, consistent with the 72% implied probability on “No.”**
Diplomatic momentum has slowed since Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge the same year. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a position reaffirmed in recent months amid ongoing regional tensions. President Trump’s May 2026 public calls for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to join produced no immediate follow-through or scheduled signings. Syria and Lebanon remain distant due to unresolved bilateral issues and domestic constraints. With the July 31 deadline now weeks away and no active negotiations or announcements indicating an imminent agreement, trader consensus reflects the absence of short-term catalysts capable of overcoming these structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 3:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No new country is expected to join the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, consistent with the 72% implied probability on “No.”** Diplomatic momentum has slowed since Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge the same year. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a position reaffirmed in recent months amid ongoing regional tensions. President Trump’s May 2026 public calls for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to join produced no immediate follow-through or scheduled signings. Syria and Lebanon remain distant due to unresolved bilateral issues and domestic constraints. With the July 31 deadline now weeks away and no active negotiations or announcements indicating an imminent agreement, trader consensus reflects the absence of short-term catalysts capable of overcoming these structural barriers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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