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Politique·Israël

Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ?

icon for Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ?
Politique·Israël

Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ?

juin 30

déc. 31

juin 30

déc. 31

Oui

11% chance
Polymarket

$24,365 Vol.

Oui

11% chance
Polymarket

$24,365 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 87.5% chance no new country will formally join the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of concrete diplomatic breakthroughs despite recent optimism. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee expressed confidence on May 12 that additional regional states could soon normalize ties with Israel under the framework, echoed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hopes for expansion, while the State Department outlined an expansion strategy two days ago. Kazakhstan announced intentions to join last week amid President Isaac Herzog's visit to deepen ties, but no formal signing has occurred. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate, yet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman insists on Palestinian statehood progress, stalled amid Iran conflict escalations that have instead reinforced existing accords like UAE-Israel Iron Dome cooperation. With just six weeks left, procedural hurdles and geopolitical risks outweigh rhetorical momentum.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.

For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,365
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 87.5% chance no new country will formally join the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of concrete diplomatic breakthroughs despite recent optimism. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee expressed confidence on May 12 that additional regional states could soon normalize ties with Israel under the framework, echoed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hopes for expansion, while the State Department outlined an expansion strategy two days ago. Kazakhstan announced intentions to join last week amid President Isaac Herzog's visit to deepen ties, but no formal signing has occurred. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate, yet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman insists on Palestinian statehood progress, stalled amid Iran conflict escalations that have instead reinforced existing accords like UAE-Israel Iron Dome cooperation. With just six weeks left, procedural hurdles and geopolitical risks outweigh rhetorical momentum.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.

For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,365
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ? » à 11%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 11¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 11% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ? » a généré $24.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ? » est « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ? » à 11%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 11% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham d'ici le 30 juin ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.