Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected in a narrow band of roughly 21-24 seats, well below its 32 seats from 2022. Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar indicate the party trails or ties Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party while Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc sits around 48-53 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. This consistent decline reflects voter fatigue after prolonged security challenges, coalition strains over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and the emergence of centrist and right-leaning alternatives. Traders assign an 85.5% probability to Likud losing seats, aligning with the sustained polling gap versus the prior election result.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour86% chance
$11,046 Vol.
$11,046 Vol.
27 oct. 2026
86% chance
$11,046 Vol.
$11,046 Vol.
27 oct. 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected in a narrow band of roughly 21-24 seats, well below its 32 seats from 2022. Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar indicate the party trails or ties Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party while Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc sits around 48-53 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. This consistent decline reflects voter fatigue after prolonged security challenges, coalition strains over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and the emergence of centrist and right-leaning alternatives. Traders assign an 85.5% probability to Likud losing seats, aligning with the sustained polling gap versus the prior election result.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$11,046Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected in a narrow band of roughly 21-24 seats, well below its 32 seats from 2022. Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar indicate the party trails or ties Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party while Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc sits around 48-53 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. This consistent decline reflects voter fatigue after prolonged security challenges, coalition strains over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and the emergence of centrist and right-leaning alternatives. Traders assign an 85.5% probability to Likud losing seats, aligning with the sustained polling gap versus the prior election result.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$11,046Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected in a narrow band of roughly 21-24 seats, well below its 32 seats from 2022. Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar indicate the party trails or ties Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party while Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc sits around 48-53 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. This consistent decline reflects voter fatigue after prolonged security challenges, coalition strains over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and the emergence of centrist and right-leaning alternatives. Traders assign an 85.5% probability to Likud losing seats, aligning with the sustained polling gap versus the prior election result.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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