Recent polls following the September 8 candidate list deadline show both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc and the main opposition “change bloc” falling short of the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, with projections typically in the low 50s for each and Arab parties plus smaller lists accounting for the balance. Surplus-vote agreements among paired parties and the possibility of a minority government backed by outside Arab support or selective cross-bloc deals have kept expectations of eventual coalition formation above 60 percent. The October 27 election remains weeks away, leaving room for late shifts in turnout or small-party performance near the 3.25 percent threshold to alter the final seat math and post-election bargaining dynamics.