Israel maintains an established naval blockade of Gaza and has intercepted every prior civilian flotilla attempt since 2010 well before any vessel neared its territorial waters. The current Global Sumud Flotilla and Freedom Flotilla Coalition vessels, after an April 29–30 interception near Crete that diverted over 175 activists, relaunched from Turkey on May 14 with more than 50 boats. At roughly 1,000 nautical miles from Gaza and facing active enforcement, the short timeline to the May 31 resolution date leaves insufficient margin for breakthrough under current naval patterns. Trader consensus at 98.8% for “No” reflects these repeated outcomes and blockade procedures, though an unforeseen diplomatic halt to enforcement or undetected transit could still alter the result.