Traders assign a 98.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army preparations within the brief six-week window. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded Beijing lacks any fixed timeline or commitment for near-term unification by force, consistent with ongoing logistical constraints across the Taiwan Strait and deterrence from U.S. alliances plus regional partners. Recent People's Liberation Army activities, including routine naval transits, air defense identification zone incursions, and exercises east of Luzon through early May, remain standard grey-zone operations rather than invasion rehearsals. Diplomatic engagement, including President Trump's May discussions with Xi Jinping, has produced no verified escalation signals. Late developments such as sudden mobilization orders or unforeseen regional crises could still alter outcomes, though structural barriers to rapid amphibious operations persist.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$8,167,497 Vol.
$8,167,497 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$8,167,497 Vol.
$8,167,497 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 98.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army preparations within the brief six-week window. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded Beijing lacks any fixed timeline or commitment for near-term unification by force, consistent with ongoing logistical constraints across the Taiwan Strait and deterrence from U.S. alliances plus regional partners. Recent People's Liberation Army activities, including routine naval transits, air defense identification zone incursions, and exercises east of Luzon through early May, remain standard grey-zone operations rather than invasion rehearsals. Diplomatic engagement, including President Trump's May discussions with Xi Jinping, has produced no verified escalation signals. Late developments such as sudden mobilization orders or unforeseen regional crises could still alter outcomes, though structural barriers to rapid amphibious operations persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$8,167,497Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 98.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army preparations within the brief six-week window. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded Beijing lacks any fixed timeline or commitment for near-term unification by force, consistent with ongoing logistical constraints across the Taiwan Strait and deterrence from U.S. alliances plus regional partners. Recent People's Liberation Army activities, including routine naval transits, air defense identification zone incursions, and exercises east of Luzon through early May, remain standard grey-zone operations rather than invasion rehearsals. Diplomatic engagement, including President Trump's May discussions with Xi Jinping, has produced no verified escalation signals. Late developments such as sudden mobilization orders or unforeseen regional crises could still alter outcomes, though structural barriers to rapid amphibious operations persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$8,168,913Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army preparations within the brief six-week window. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded Beijing lacks any fixed timeline or commitment for near-term unification by force, consistent with ongoing logistical constraints across the Taiwan Strait and deterrence from U.S. alliances plus regional partners. Recent People's Liberation Army activities, including routine naval transits, air defense identification zone incursions, and exercises east of Luzon through early May, remain standard grey-zone operations rather than invasion rehearsals. Diplomatic engagement, including President Trump's May discussions with Xi Jinping, has produced no verified escalation signals. Late developments such as sudden mobilization orders or unforeseen regional crises could still alter outcomes, though structural barriers to rapid amphibious operations persist.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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