Recent U.S.-China summits and the creation of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment have established formal channels for managing tariff disputes and reciprocal reductions. The November 2025 framework agreement lowered certain duties, including fentanyl-related rates, and suspended higher reciprocal tariffs through November 2026, while securing Chinese purchase commitments on U.S. agricultural goods. The May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting reinforced these arrangements with additional soybean and aircraft purchase pledges plus mechanisms to address non-tariff barriers. Traders assign 75% probability to a further official tariff agreement by December 31, 2026, reflecting ongoing diplomatic momentum and shared incentives to stabilize bilateral trade flows ahead of the existing truce expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$16,236 Vol.
$16,236 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$16,236 Vol.
$16,236 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China summits and the creation of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment have established formal channels for managing tariff disputes and reciprocal reductions. The November 2025 framework agreement lowered certain duties, including fentanyl-related rates, and suspended higher reciprocal tariffs through November 2026, while securing Chinese purchase commitments on U.S. agricultural goods. The May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting reinforced these arrangements with additional soybean and aircraft purchase pledges plus mechanisms to address non-tariff barriers. Traders assign 75% probability to a further official tariff agreement by December 31, 2026, reflecting ongoing diplomatic momentum and shared incentives to stabilize bilateral trade flows ahead of the existing truce expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$16,236Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China summits and the creation of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment have established formal channels for managing tariff disputes and reciprocal reductions. The November 2025 framework agreement lowered certain duties, including fentanyl-related rates, and suspended higher reciprocal tariffs through November 2026, while securing Chinese purchase commitments on U.S. agricultural goods. The May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting reinforced these arrangements with additional soybean and aircraft purchase pledges plus mechanisms to address non-tariff barriers. Traders assign 75% probability to a further official tariff agreement by December 31, 2026, reflecting ongoing diplomatic momentum and shared incentives to stabilize bilateral trade flows ahead of the existing truce expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$16,236Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China summits and the creation of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment have established formal channels for managing tariff disputes and reciprocal reductions. The November 2025 framework agreement lowered certain duties, including fentanyl-related rates, and suspended higher reciprocal tariffs through November 2026, while securing Chinese purchase commitments on U.S. agricultural goods. The May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting reinforced these arrangements with additional soybean and aircraft purchase pledges plus mechanisms to address non-tariff barriers. Traders assign 75% probability to a further official tariff agreement by December 31, 2026, reflecting ongoing diplomatic momentum and shared incentives to stabilize bilateral trade flows ahead of the existing truce expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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