Ongoing US-China trade talks, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, produced frameworks for managed trade, selective tariff and non-tariff barrier reductions, and purchase commitments on agricultural goods and critical minerals, yet left core details subject to further negotiation without a finalized comprehensive tariff agreement. Earlier 2025 truces extended certain reciprocal tariff suspensions into November 2026, but recent diplomatic efforts have centered on narrower technical issues such as rare earth supplies and export controls rather than broad new pacts. With roughly five weeks until the July 31 deadline and no major breakthroughs reported in June, trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% “No” probability aligns with the incremental pace of bilateral negotiations and persistent structural tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-China trade talks, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, produced frameworks for managed trade, selective tariff and non-tariff barrier reductions, and purchase commitments on agricultural goods and critical minerals, yet left core details subject to further negotiation without a finalized comprehensive tariff agreement. Earlier 2025 truces extended certain reciprocal tariff suspensions into November 2026, but recent diplomatic efforts have centered on narrower technical issues such as rare earth supplies and export controls rather than broad new pacts. With roughly five weeks until the July 31 deadline and no major breakthroughs reported in June, trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% “No” probability aligns with the incremental pace of bilateral negotiations and persistent structural tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Jun 26, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$12Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-China trade talks, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, produced frameworks for managed trade, selective tariff and non-tariff barrier reductions, and purchase commitments on agricultural goods and critical minerals, yet left core details subject to further negotiation without a finalized comprehensive tariff agreement. Earlier 2025 truces extended certain reciprocal tariff suspensions into November 2026, but recent diplomatic efforts have centered on narrower technical issues such as rare earth supplies and export controls rather than broad new pacts. With roughly five weeks until the July 31 deadline and no major breakthroughs reported in June, trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% “No” probability aligns with the incremental pace of bilateral negotiations and persistent structural tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$12Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-China trade talks, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, produced frameworks for managed trade, selective tariff and non-tariff barrier reductions, and purchase commitments on agricultural goods and critical minerals, yet left core details subject to further negotiation without a finalized comprehensive tariff agreement. Earlier 2025 truces extended certain reciprocal tariff suspensions into November 2026, but recent diplomatic efforts have centered on narrower technical issues such as rare earth supplies and export controls rather than broad new pacts. With roughly five weeks until the July 31 deadline and no major breakthroughs reported in June, trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% “No” probability aligns with the incremental pace of bilateral negotiations and persistent structural tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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