Recent US-China summit diplomacy in mid-May 2026, including direct talks between President Trump and Xi Jinping, has reinforced expectations that Beijing and Washington will manage Taiwan-related tensions through calibrated pressure rather than direct confrontation. Chinese military drills simulating blockades and increased South China Sea patrols continue alongside US-Philippine joint exercises and anti-ship missile deployments, yet these remain below the threshold of mutual engagement. Economic interdependence, mutual deterrence from expanded alliances, and shared incentives to avoid escalation in the first island chain sustain trader consensus that no US-China military clash will occur before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Oui
$112,962 Vol.
$112,962 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$112,962 Vol.
$112,962 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-China summit diplomacy in mid-May 2026, including direct talks between President Trump and Xi Jinping, has reinforced expectations that Beijing and Washington will manage Taiwan-related tensions through calibrated pressure rather than direct confrontation. Chinese military drills simulating blockades and increased South China Sea patrols continue alongside US-Philippine joint exercises and anti-ship missile deployments, yet these remain below the threshold of mutual engagement. Economic interdependence, mutual deterrence from expanded alliances, and shared incentives to avoid escalation in the first island chain sustain trader consensus that no US-China military clash will occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$112,962Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-China summit diplomacy in mid-May 2026, including direct talks between President Trump and Xi Jinping, has reinforced expectations that Beijing and Washington will manage Taiwan-related tensions through calibrated pressure rather than direct confrontation. Chinese military drills simulating blockades and increased South China Sea patrols continue alongside US-Philippine joint exercises and anti-ship missile deployments, yet these remain below the threshold of mutual engagement. Economic interdependence, mutual deterrence from expanded alliances, and shared incentives to avoid escalation in the first island chain sustain trader consensus that no US-China military clash will occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$112,962Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-China summit diplomacy in mid-May 2026, including direct talks between President Trump and Xi Jinping, has reinforced expectations that Beijing and Washington will manage Taiwan-related tensions through calibrated pressure rather than direct confrontation. Chinese military drills simulating blockades and increased South China Sea patrols continue alongside US-Philippine joint exercises and anti-ship missile deployments, yet these remain below the threshold of mutual engagement. Economic interdependence, mutual deterrence from expanded alliances, and shared incentives to avoid escalation in the first island chain sustain trader consensus that no US-China military clash will occur before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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