**Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting the brief remaining window through late 2026 and sustained patterns of deterrence without kinetic escalation.** Both governments have maintained military-to-military communication channels, conducted high-level summits, and managed incidents through gray-zone tactics, patrols, and joint exercises involving allies such as the Philippines and Japan. US deployments of anti-ship systems and carrier transits, alongside Chinese responses in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, have heightened operational tempo yet produced no direct engagements between US and PRC forces. Nuclear risks, economic interdependence, and institutional focus on crisis avoidance reinforce this consensus. A sudden major incident, such as an accidental collision during exercises or rapid escalation over Taiwan, could still shift odds, though such triggers remain low-probability in the compressed timeframe.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Oui
4% chance
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting the brief remaining window through late 2026 and sustained patterns of deterrence without kinetic escalation.** Both governments have maintained military-to-military communication channels, conducted high-level summits, and managed incidents through gray-zone tactics, patrols, and joint exercises involving allies such as the Philippines and Japan. US deployments of anti-ship systems and carrier transits, alongside Chinese responses in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, have heightened operational tempo yet produced no direct engagements between US and PRC forces. Nuclear risks, economic interdependence, and institutional focus on crisis avoidance reinforce this consensus. A sudden major incident, such as an accidental collision during exercises or rapid escalation over Taiwan, could still shift odds, though such triggers remain low-probability in the compressed timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$194,565Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting the brief remaining window through late 2026 and sustained patterns of deterrence without kinetic escalation.** Both governments have maintained military-to-military communication channels, conducted high-level summits, and managed incidents through gray-zone tactics, patrols, and joint exercises involving allies such as the Philippines and Japan. US deployments of anti-ship systems and carrier transits, alongside Chinese responses in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, have heightened operational tempo yet produced no direct engagements between US and PRC forces. Nuclear risks, economic interdependence, and institutional focus on crisis avoidance reinforce this consensus. A sudden major incident, such as an accidental collision during exercises or rapid escalation over Taiwan, could still shift odds, though such triggers remain low-probability in the compressed timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,565Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting the brief remaining window through late 2026 and sustained patterns of deterrence without kinetic escalation.** Both governments have maintained military-to-military communication channels, conducted high-level summits, and managed incidents through gray-zone tactics, patrols, and joint exercises involving allies such as the Philippines and Japan. US deployments of anti-ship systems and carrier transits, alongside Chinese responses in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, have heightened operational tempo yet produced no direct engagements between US and PRC forces. Nuclear risks, economic interdependence, and institutional focus on crisis avoidance reinforce this consensus. A sudden major incident, such as an accidental collision during exercises or rapid escalation over Taiwan, could still shift odds, though such triggers remain low-probability in the compressed timeframe.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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