Recent diplomatic stabilization, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit that produced trade commitments and shared understandings on strategic stability, has anchored trader consensus at a 95.7% probability against a U.S.-China military clash before 2027. Both sides have maintained regular high-level channels, scheduled follow-up meetings, and avoided direct escalation despite continued Taiwan Strait drills and regional exercises. The brief window remaining in 2026 further limits opportunities for major shifts. Plausible catalysts that could still move probabilities include accidental collisions during intensified naval operations, rapid changes in Taiwan policy following elections or statements, or spillover from broader Indo-Pacific crises that overwhelm existing deterrence frameworks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Oui
4% chance
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic stabilization, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit that produced trade commitments and shared understandings on strategic stability, has anchored trader consensus at a 95.7% probability against a U.S.-China military clash before 2027. Both sides have maintained regular high-level channels, scheduled follow-up meetings, and avoided direct escalation despite continued Taiwan Strait drills and regional exercises. The brief window remaining in 2026 further limits opportunities for major shifts. Plausible catalysts that could still move probabilities include accidental collisions during intensified naval operations, rapid changes in Taiwan policy following elections or statements, or spillover from broader Indo-Pacific crises that overwhelm existing deterrence frameworks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$194,565Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic stabilization, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit that produced trade commitments and shared understandings on strategic stability, has anchored trader consensus at a 95.7% probability against a U.S.-China military clash before 2027. Both sides have maintained regular high-level channels, scheduled follow-up meetings, and avoided direct escalation despite continued Taiwan Strait drills and regional exercises. The brief window remaining in 2026 further limits opportunities for major shifts. Plausible catalysts that could still move probabilities include accidental collisions during intensified naval operations, rapid changes in Taiwan policy following elections or statements, or spillover from broader Indo-Pacific crises that overwhelm existing deterrence frameworks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,565Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic stabilization, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit that produced trade commitments and shared understandings on strategic stability, has anchored trader consensus at a 95.7% probability against a U.S.-China military clash before 2027. Both sides have maintained regular high-level channels, scheduled follow-up meetings, and avoided direct escalation despite continued Taiwan Strait drills and regional exercises. The brief window remaining in 2026 further limits opportunities for major shifts. Plausible catalysts that could still move probabilities include accidental collisions during intensified naval operations, rapid changes in Taiwan policy following elections or statements, or spillover from broader Indo-Pacific crises that overwhelm existing deterrence frameworks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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