Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges of senior military figures, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. These actions, officially tied to corruption and discipline violations, have neutralized potential factional challenges and reinforced personalistic rule ahead of the 2027 party congress. No verifiable coup attempt has materialized despite recurring online rumors, reflecting the system's opacity, elite cohesion around core leadership, and absence of organized opposition. Traders assign 96.4% probability to no attempt before 2027 due to this consolidated authority. Rare disruptive scenarios, such as an unforeseen health crisis or acute economic shock fracturing elite consensus, remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
4% chance
$153,750 Vol.
$153,750 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$153,750 Vol.
$153,750 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges of senior military figures, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. These actions, officially tied to corruption and discipline violations, have neutralized potential factional challenges and reinforced personalistic rule ahead of the 2027 party congress. No verifiable coup attempt has materialized despite recurring online rumors, reflecting the system's opacity, elite cohesion around core leadership, and absence of organized opposition. Traders assign 96.4% probability to no attempt before 2027 due to this consolidated authority. Rare disruptive scenarios, such as an unforeseen health crisis or acute economic shock fracturing elite consensus, remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$153,750Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges of senior military figures, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. These actions, officially tied to corruption and discipline violations, have neutralized potential factional challenges and reinforced personalistic rule ahead of the 2027 party congress. No verifiable coup attempt has materialized despite recurring online rumors, reflecting the system's opacity, elite cohesion around core leadership, and absence of organized opposition. Traders assign 96.4% probability to no attempt before 2027 due to this consolidated authority. Rare disruptive scenarios, such as an unforeseen health crisis or acute economic shock fracturing elite consensus, remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,750Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges of senior military figures, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. These actions, officially tied to corruption and discipline violations, have neutralized potential factional challenges and reinforced personalistic rule ahead of the 2027 party congress. No verifiable coup attempt has materialized despite recurring online rumors, reflecting the system's opacity, elite cohesion around core leadership, and absence of organized opposition. Traders assign 96.4% probability to no attempt before 2027 due to this consolidated authority. Rare disruptive scenarios, such as an unforeseen health crisis or acute economic shock fracturing elite consensus, remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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