Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through military purges and anti-corruption investigations has reinforced trader confidence in political stability. In early 2026, the removal and scrutiny of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia eliminated potential sources of factional opposition within the People's Liberation Army, with subsequent months showing no verified challenges to CCP leadership or organized dissent. China's authoritarian structure, centralized command, and extensive security apparatus further reduce the likelihood of a coup attempt before 2027. While near-certain market odds reflect this track record, realistic shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health events, severe economic dislocations fracturing elite consensus, or major external crises exposing internal vulnerabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
4% chance
$153,750 Vol.
$153,750 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$153,750 Vol.
$153,750 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through military purges and anti-corruption investigations has reinforced trader confidence in political stability. In early 2026, the removal and scrutiny of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia eliminated potential sources of factional opposition within the People's Liberation Army, with subsequent months showing no verified challenges to CCP leadership or organized dissent. China's authoritarian structure, centralized command, and extensive security apparatus further reduce the likelihood of a coup attempt before 2027. While near-certain market odds reflect this track record, realistic shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health events, severe economic dislocations fracturing elite consensus, or major external crises exposing internal vulnerabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$153,750Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through military purges and anti-corruption investigations has reinforced trader confidence in political stability. In early 2026, the removal and scrutiny of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia eliminated potential sources of factional opposition within the People's Liberation Army, with subsequent months showing no verified challenges to CCP leadership or organized dissent. China's authoritarian structure, centralized command, and extensive security apparatus further reduce the likelihood of a coup attempt before 2027. While near-certain market odds reflect this track record, realistic shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health events, severe economic dislocations fracturing elite consensus, or major external crises exposing internal vulnerabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,750Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through military purges and anti-corruption investigations has reinforced trader confidence in political stability. In early 2026, the removal and scrutiny of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia eliminated potential sources of factional opposition within the People's Liberation Army, with subsequent months showing no verified challenges to CCP leadership or organized dissent. China's authoritarian structure, centralized command, and extensive security apparatus further reduce the likelihood of a coup attempt before 2027. While near-certain market odds reflect this track record, realistic shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health events, severe economic dislocations fracturing elite consensus, or major external crises exposing internal vulnerabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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