Taiwan's ongoing Han Kuang drills and civil defense exercises through mid-August 2026 underscore continued preparation for potential coercion, yet show no signs of the large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for a full invasion. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack both a 2027 invasion plan and any fixed unification timeline, citing ongoing purges in the PLA high command and capability gaps that would complicate rapid action. Beijing has maintained maritime patrols and air activity around Taiwan but has not escalated to the threshold of hostilities in the narrow window remaining before September 30. Trader consensus at 99.2% reflects this absence of verifiable indicators, though an unforeseen miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait or a sudden cross-strait incident could still alter the trajectory before the resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
<1% chance
$1,904,064 Vol.
$1,904,064 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
<1% chance
$1,904,064 Vol.
$1,904,064 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's ongoing Han Kuang drills and civil defense exercises through mid-August 2026 underscore continued preparation for potential coercion, yet show no signs of the large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for a full invasion. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack both a 2027 invasion plan and any fixed unification timeline, citing ongoing purges in the PLA high command and capability gaps that would complicate rapid action. Beijing has maintained maritime patrols and air activity around Taiwan but has not escalated to the threshold of hostilities in the narrow window remaining before September 30. Trader consensus at 99.2% reflects this absence of verifiable indicators, though an unforeseen miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait or a sudden cross-strait incident could still alter the trajectory before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,904,064Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's ongoing Han Kuang drills and civil defense exercises through mid-August 2026 underscore continued preparation for potential coercion, yet show no signs of the large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for a full invasion. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack both a 2027 invasion plan and any fixed unification timeline, citing ongoing purges in the PLA high command and capability gaps that would complicate rapid action. Beijing has maintained maritime patrols and air activity around Taiwan but has not escalated to the threshold of hostilities in the narrow window remaining before September 30. Trader consensus at 99.2% reflects this absence of verifiable indicators, though an unforeseen miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait or a sudden cross-strait incident could still alter the trajectory before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,904,064Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Taiwan's ongoing Han Kuang drills and civil defense exercises through mid-August 2026 underscore continued preparation for potential coercion, yet show no signs of the large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for a full invasion. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack both a 2027 invasion plan and any fixed unification timeline, citing ongoing purges in the PLA high command and capability gaps that would complicate rapid action. Beijing has maintained maritime patrols and air activity around Taiwan but has not escalated to the threshold of hostilities in the narrow window remaining before September 30. Trader consensus at 99.2% reflects this absence of verifiable indicators, though an unforeseen miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait or a sudden cross-strait incident could still alter the trajectory before the resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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