US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan, contributing to the strong trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent implied probability for no invasion by late September. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have remained at lower levels through April and early May, with fewer air defense identification zone incursions than in prior periods, while Beijing has pursued diplomatic engagement including the April summit with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leadership and preparations for bilateral talks with Washington. Taiwan's recent approval of additional defense funding further supports deterrence without triggering escalation. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt changes in cross-strait military posture, outcomes of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, or unforeseen regional incidents, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$503,128 Vol.
$503,128 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
$503,128 Vol.
$503,128 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan, contributing to the strong trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent implied probability for no invasion by late September. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have remained at lower levels through April and early May, with fewer air defense identification zone incursions than in prior periods, while Beijing has pursued diplomatic engagement including the April summit with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leadership and preparations for bilateral talks with Washington. Taiwan's recent approval of additional defense funding further supports deterrence without triggering escalation. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt changes in cross-strait military posture, outcomes of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, or unforeseen regional incidents, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$503,128Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan, contributing to the strong trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent implied probability for no invasion by late September. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have remained at lower levels through April and early May, with fewer air defense identification zone incursions than in prior periods, while Beijing has pursued diplomatic engagement including the April summit with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leadership and preparations for bilateral talks with Washington. Taiwan's recent approval of additional defense funding further supports deterrence without triggering escalation. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt changes in cross-strait military posture, outcomes of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, or unforeseen regional incidents, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$503,128Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan, contributing to the strong trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent implied probability for no invasion by late September. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have remained at lower levels through April and early May, with fewer air defense identification zone incursions than in prior periods, while Beijing has pursued diplomatic engagement including the April summit with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leadership and preparations for bilateral talks with Washington. Taiwan's recent approval of additional defense funding further supports deterrence without triggering escalation. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt changes in cross-strait military posture, outcomes of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, or unforeseen regional incidents, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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