Moonshot AI’s July 16 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which tops several Chinese coding and agent benchmarks while narrowing the gap to leading U.S. systems, has intensified competition for second place behind DeepSeek. Traders see a tight race among Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen3.7 series with its strong agentic coding results, Z.ai’s GLM-5 models, ByteDance’s Seed offerings, Baidu, MiniMax, and StepFun, each differentiated by parameter scale, context length, open-weight availability, and specialized strengths in reasoning or multimodal tasks. With no dominant consensus and resolution less than six weeks away, market-implied odds near 50% reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the possibility of further updates shifting relative positioning before the end of August.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMoonshot 52%
Baidu 47%
Z.ai 44%
DeepSeek 41%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
Moonshot
52%
Baidu
47%
Z.ai
44%
DeepSeek
41%
MiniMax
40%
Tencent
40%
Xiaomi
38%
Meituan
37%
Alibaba
37%
ByteDance
21%
StepFun
16%
Moonshot 52%
Baidu 47%
Z.ai 44%
DeepSeek 41%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
52%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
47%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
44%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
41%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
40%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
40%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
38%
Meituan
$33 Vol.
37%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
37%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
21%
StepFun
$20 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 16 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which tops several Chinese coding and agent benchmarks while narrowing the gap to leading U.S. systems, has intensified competition for second place behind DeepSeek. Traders see a tight race among Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen3.7 series with its strong agentic coding results, Z.ai’s GLM-5 models, ByteDance’s Seed offerings, Baidu, MiniMax, and StepFun, each differentiated by parameter scale, context length, open-weight availability, and specialized strengths in reasoning or multimodal tasks. With no dominant consensus and resolution less than six weeks away, market-implied odds near 50% reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the possibility of further updates shifting relative positioning before the end of August.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$53Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 16 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which tops several Chinese coding and agent benchmarks while narrowing the gap to leading U.S. systems, has intensified competition for second place behind DeepSeek. Traders see a tight race among Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen3.7 series with its strong agentic coding results, Z.ai’s GLM-5 models, ByteDance’s Seed offerings, Baidu, MiniMax, and StepFun, each differentiated by parameter scale, context length, open-weight availability, and specialized strengths in reasoning or multimodal tasks. With no dominant consensus and resolution less than six weeks away, market-implied odds near 50% reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the possibility of further updates shifting relative positioning before the end of August.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$53Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI’s July 16 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which tops several Chinese coding and agent benchmarks while narrowing the gap to leading U.S. systems, has intensified competition for second place behind DeepSeek. Traders see a tight race among Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen3.7 series with its strong agentic coding results, Z.ai’s GLM-5 models, ByteDance’s Seed offerings, Baidu, MiniMax, and StepFun, each differentiated by parameter scale, context length, open-weight availability, and specialized strengths in reasoning or multimodal tasks. With no dominant consensus and resolution less than six weeks away, market-implied odds near 50% reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the possibility of further updates shifting relative positioning before the end of August.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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