OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 3 has driven the strongest trader consensus at 71.7% implied probability, as the model quickly posted the highest Code Arena WebDev scores around 1,797 points on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard evaluating agentic frontend coding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, launched days earlier, briefly led with 1,765–1,797 range marks before settling at 23.5%, reflecting tight competition between the two proprietary leaders. Shorter-lived surges by Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 earlier in September underscore how rapidly leaderboard positions shift with new model drops, while most other companies remain at negligible odds given limited recent demonstration of comparable web-dev capabilities. With resolution just two weeks away, traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s latest edge in real-world iterative tasks most heavily.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOpenAI 71.7%
Anthropic 24%
SpaceXAI <1%
Moonshot <1%
$141,449 Vol.
$141,449 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
OpenAI
72%
Anthropic
24%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 71.7%
Anthropic 24%
SpaceXAI <1%
Moonshot <1%
$141,449 Vol.
$141,449 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
OpenAI
$26,784 Vol.
72%
Anthropic
$58,737 Vol.
24%
SpaceXAI
$6,591 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$20,259 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$8,527 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,801 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$3,137 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
$4,324 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$657 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$560 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$571 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 3 has driven the strongest trader consensus at 71.7% implied probability, as the model quickly posted the highest Code Arena WebDev scores around 1,797 points on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard evaluating agentic frontend coding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, launched days earlier, briefly led with 1,765–1,797 range marks before settling at 23.5%, reflecting tight competition between the two proprietary leaders. Shorter-lived surges by Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 earlier in September underscore how rapidly leaderboard positions shift with new model drops, while most other companies remain at negligible odds given limited recent demonstration of comparable web-dev capabilities. With resolution just two weeks away, traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s latest edge in real-world iterative tasks most heavily.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$141,449Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 3 has driven the strongest trader consensus at 71.7% implied probability, as the model quickly posted the highest Code Arena WebDev scores around 1,797 points on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard evaluating agentic frontend coding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, launched days earlier, briefly led with 1,765–1,797 range marks before settling at 23.5%, reflecting tight competition between the two proprietary leaders. Shorter-lived surges by Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 earlier in September underscore how rapidly leaderboard positions shift with new model drops, while most other companies remain at negligible odds given limited recent demonstration of comparable web-dev capabilities. With resolution just two weeks away, traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s latest edge in real-world iterative tasks most heavily.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$141,449Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 3 has driven the strongest trader consensus at 71.7% implied probability, as the model quickly posted the highest Code Arena WebDev scores around 1,797 points on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard evaluating agentic frontend coding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, launched days earlier, briefly led with 1,765–1,797 range marks before settling at 23.5%, reflecting tight competition between the two proprietary leaders. Shorter-lived surges by Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 earlier in September underscore how rapidly leaderboard positions shift with new model drops, while most other companies remain at negligible odds given limited recent demonstration of comparable web-dev capabilities. With resolution just two weeks away, traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s latest edge in real-world iterative tasks most heavily.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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