The tightly clustered market-implied odds around 48-50% for OpenAI and several other labs underscore the fluid race to rank as the second-best AI agent developer by late November. Traders are weighing OpenAI's strong demonstrated capabilities in tool-using agents and large language model integrations against competitors' recent releases, including Anthropic's focus on reliable multi-step reasoning, Google's platform-scale infrastructure advantages, and faster-iterating labs like DeepSeek or ByteDance. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, third-party benchmarks on agent autonomy and safety, and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could shift developer mindshare or user adoption before the resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOpenAI 44%
Alibaba 25.1%
DeepSeek 25.1%
Microsoft 25.1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
OpenAI
51%
Alibaba
25%
DeepSeek
25%
Microsoft
25%
Mistral
25%
ByteDance
13%
Anthropic
13%
7%
Moonshot
7%
Nvidia
4%
Xiaomi
3%
Meituan
3%
Z.ai
3%
Baidu
2%
Amazon
14%
Tencent
1%
MiniMax
1%
SpaceXAI
24%
Meta
<1%
OpenAI 44%
Alibaba 25.1%
DeepSeek 25.1%
Microsoft 25.1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
OpenAI
$297 Vol.
51%
Alibaba
$146 Vol.
25%
DeepSeek
$146 Vol.
25%
Microsoft
$146 Vol.
25%
Mistral
$146 Vol.
25%
ByteDance
$146 Vol.
13%
Anthropic
$312 Vol.
13%
$453 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$437 Vol.
7%
Nvidia
$262 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$136 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$166 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$146 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$364 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$160 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$146 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$453 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$176 Vol.
24%
Meta
$158 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tightly clustered market-implied odds around 48-50% for OpenAI and several other labs underscore the fluid race to rank as the second-best AI agent developer by late November. Traders are weighing OpenAI's strong demonstrated capabilities in tool-using agents and large language model integrations against competitors' recent releases, including Anthropic's focus on reliable multi-step reasoning, Google's platform-scale infrastructure advantages, and faster-iterating labs like DeepSeek or ByteDance. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, third-party benchmarks on agent autonomy and safety, and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could shift developer mindshare or user adoption before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$4,391Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tightly clustered market-implied odds around 48-50% for OpenAI and several other labs underscore the fluid race to rank as the second-best AI agent developer by late November. Traders are weighing OpenAI's strong demonstrated capabilities in tool-using agents and large language model integrations against competitors' recent releases, including Anthropic's focus on reliable multi-step reasoning, Google's platform-scale infrastructure advantages, and faster-iterating labs like DeepSeek or ByteDance. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, third-party benchmarks on agent autonomy and safety, and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could shift developer mindshare or user adoption before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$4,391Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The tightly clustered market-implied odds around 48-50% for OpenAI and several other labs underscore the fluid race to rank as the second-best AI agent developer by late November. Traders are weighing OpenAI's strong demonstrated capabilities in tool-using agents and large language model integrations against competitors' recent releases, including Anthropic's focus on reliable multi-step reasoning, Google's platform-scale infrastructure advantages, and faster-iterating labs like DeepSeek or ByteDance. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, third-party benchmarks on agent autonomy and safety, and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could shift developer mindshare or user adoption before the resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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