Traders see a tight race for second place in code and web development AI capabilities by late November, with Anthropic holding a narrow 50.5% implied probability edge amid a cluster of outcomes near 50%. Recent model updates from leading labs have narrowed gaps on benchmarks such as SWE-Bench and web-focused coding tasks, where demonstrated strengths in agentic reasoning, long-context handling, and frontend generation matter most. OpenAI, Google, and several Chinese labs trail at 17.5% or lower, reflecting slower perceived progress on specialized code arenas despite broader AI releases. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences, new benchmark evaluations, and any official capability demonstrations that could shift the competitive ordering before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 51%
OpenAI 18%
Google 12%
Tencent 11.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Anthropic
51%
OpenAI
18%
12%
Tencent
12%
DeepSeek
9%
Meta
9%
Alibaba
8%
Z.ai
8%
SpaceXAI
7%
MiniMax
7%
ByteDance
4%
Poolside
4%
Mistral
4%
Moonshot
2%
Xiaomi
2%
Thinky
2%
Anthropic 51%
OpenAI 18%
Google 12%
Tencent 11.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Anthropic
$251 Vol.
51%
OpenAI
$78 Vol.
18%
$50 Vol.
12%
Tencent
$21 Vol.
12%
DeepSeek
$21 Vol.
9%
Meta
$64 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$45 Vol.
8%
Z.ai
$38 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$38 Vol.
7%
MiniMax
$49 Vol.
7%
ByteDance
$142 Vol.
4%
Poolside
$38 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$175 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$38 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$183 Vol.
2%
Thinky
$48 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight race for second place in code and web development AI capabilities by late November, with Anthropic holding a narrow 50.5% implied probability edge amid a cluster of outcomes near 50%. Recent model updates from leading labs have narrowed gaps on benchmarks such as SWE-Bench and web-focused coding tasks, where demonstrated strengths in agentic reasoning, long-context handling, and frontend generation matter most. OpenAI, Google, and several Chinese labs trail at 17.5% or lower, reflecting slower perceived progress on specialized code arenas despite broader AI releases. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences, new benchmark evaluations, and any official capability demonstrations that could shift the competitive ordering before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,278Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight race for second place in code and web development AI capabilities by late November, with Anthropic holding a narrow 50.5% implied probability edge amid a cluster of outcomes near 50%. Recent model updates from leading labs have narrowed gaps on benchmarks such as SWE-Bench and web-focused coding tasks, where demonstrated strengths in agentic reasoning, long-context handling, and frontend generation matter most. OpenAI, Google, and several Chinese labs trail at 17.5% or lower, reflecting slower perceived progress on specialized code arenas despite broader AI releases. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences, new benchmark evaluations, and any official capability demonstrations that could shift the competitive ordering before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,278Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tight race for second place in code and web development AI capabilities by late November, with Anthropic holding a narrow 50.5% implied probability edge amid a cluster of outcomes near 50%. Recent model updates from leading labs have narrowed gaps on benchmarks such as SWE-Bench and web-focused coding tasks, where demonstrated strengths in agentic reasoning, long-context handling, and frontend generation matter most. OpenAI, Google, and several Chinese labs trail at 17.5% or lower, reflecting slower perceived progress on specialized code arenas despite broader AI releases. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences, new benchmark evaluations, and any official capability demonstrations that could shift the competitive ordering before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
OpenAI sera-t-il le troisième meilleur laboratoire d'IA WebDev de l'Arène du Code à la fin novembre 2026 ?
36%
Oui
Anthropic sera-t-il le deuxième meilleur laboratoire Code Arena | WebDev IA à la fin octobre 2026 ?
61%
Oui
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
39%
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