Trader consensus favors no comprehensive U.S. AI safety bill—mandating risk assessments or transparency for frontier models—before 2027 at 72.5%, reflecting stalled federal progress amid the 119th Congress's narrow focus on targeted measures. The White House's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritized innovation-friendly policies, child safety guardrails, and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, signaling executive preference for light-touch regulation. Recent bipartisan advances, like the Senate Judiciary Committee's April 30 unanimous vote to advance the GUARD Act banning AI companions for minors and requiring age verification, and House appropriations funding for AI security research on May 13, highlight incremental committee actions without floor votes or passage. With 2026 midterms looming, divided priorities and historical challenges in tech legislation underpin the low enactment odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$98,173 Vol.
$98,173 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$98,173 Vol.
$98,173 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors no comprehensive U.S. AI safety bill—mandating risk assessments or transparency for frontier models—before 2027 at 72.5%, reflecting stalled federal progress amid the 119th Congress's narrow focus on targeted measures. The White House's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritized innovation-friendly policies, child safety guardrails, and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, signaling executive preference for light-touch regulation. Recent bipartisan advances, like the Senate Judiciary Committee's April 30 unanimous vote to advance the GUARD Act banning AI companions for minors and requiring age verification, and House appropriations funding for AI security research on May 13, highlight incremental committee actions without floor votes or passage. With 2026 midterms looming, divided priorities and historical challenges in tech legislation underpin the low enactment odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$98,173Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors no comprehensive U.S. AI safety bill—mandating risk assessments or transparency for frontier models—before 2027 at 72.5%, reflecting stalled federal progress amid the 119th Congress's narrow focus on targeted measures. The White House's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritized innovation-friendly policies, child safety guardrails, and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, signaling executive preference for light-touch regulation. Recent bipartisan advances, like the Senate Judiciary Committee's April 30 unanimous vote to advance the GUARD Act banning AI companions for minors and requiring age verification, and House appropriations funding for AI security research on May 13, highlight incremental committee actions without floor votes or passage. With 2026 midterms looming, divided priorities and historical challenges in tech legislation underpin the low enactment odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$98,173Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no comprehensive U.S. AI safety bill—mandating risk assessments or transparency for frontier models—before 2027 at 72.5%, reflecting stalled federal progress amid the 119th Congress's narrow focus on targeted measures. The White House's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritized innovation-friendly policies, child safety guardrails, and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, signaling executive preference for light-touch regulation. Recent bipartisan advances, like the Senate Judiciary Committee's April 30 unanimous vote to advance the GUARD Act banning AI companions for minors and requiring age verification, and House appropriations funding for AI security research on May 13, highlight incremental committee actions without floor votes or passage. With 2026 midterms looming, divided priorities and historical challenges in tech legislation underpin the low enactment odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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