Recent model releases and agentic benchmark shifts have kept the third-best AI agent lab race tightly contested through September 2026, with no lab holding a durable edge on metrics like Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, BrowseComp, and long-horizon tool use. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead several indices for reasoning and autonomous workflows, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 series post strong results in computer-use and enterprise agent tasks. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 open-weight release in July narrowed gaps on coding and browsing evals at lower cost, boosting its implied odds alongside other Chinese labs. Frequent updates, differing strengths in speed versus capability, and upcoming November deadlines sustain the uncertainty, as any new frontier demonstration could reorder trader consensus before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMoonshot 38%
OpenAI 18%
SpaceXAI 13%
Alibaba 10.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Moonshot
38%
OpenAI
18%
SpaceXAI
13%
Alibaba
10%
Meta
10%
Amazon
9%
7%
Z.ai
6%
Nvidia
4%
ByteDance
4%
Baidu
4%
Mistral
4%
Meituan
4%
Anthropic
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
<1%
Xiaomi
9%
MiniMax
9%
Moonshot 38%
OpenAI 18%
SpaceXAI 13%
Alibaba 10.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Moonshot
$426 Vol.
38%
OpenAI
$265 Vol.
18%
SpaceXAI
$187 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$87 Vol.
10%
Meta
$87 Vol.
10%
Amazon
$87 Vol.
9%
$87 Vol.
7%
Z.ai
$87 Vol.
6%
Nvidia
$87 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$87 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$87 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$147 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$87 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$452 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$93 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$107 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$193 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$104 Vol.
9%
MiniMax
$107 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and agentic benchmark shifts have kept the third-best AI agent lab race tightly contested through September 2026, with no lab holding a durable edge on metrics like Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, BrowseComp, and long-horizon tool use. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead several indices for reasoning and autonomous workflows, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 series post strong results in computer-use and enterprise agent tasks. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 open-weight release in July narrowed gaps on coding and browsing evals at lower cost, boosting its implied odds alongside other Chinese labs. Frequent updates, differing strengths in speed versus capability, and upcoming November deadlines sustain the uncertainty, as any new frontier demonstration could reorder trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$2,860Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and agentic benchmark shifts have kept the third-best AI agent lab race tightly contested through September 2026, with no lab holding a durable edge on metrics like Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, BrowseComp, and long-horizon tool use. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead several indices for reasoning and autonomous workflows, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 series post strong results in computer-use and enterprise agent tasks. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 open-weight release in July narrowed gaps on coding and browsing evals at lower cost, boosting its implied odds alongside other Chinese labs. Frequent updates, differing strengths in speed versus capability, and upcoming November deadlines sustain the uncertainty, as any new frontier demonstration could reorder trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,860Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and agentic benchmark shifts have kept the third-best AI agent lab race tightly contested through September 2026, with no lab holding a durable edge on metrics like Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, BrowseComp, and long-horizon tool use. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead several indices for reasoning and autonomous workflows, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 series post strong results in computer-use and enterprise agent tasks. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 open-weight release in July narrowed gaps on coding and browsing evals at lower cost, boosting its implied odds alongside other Chinese labs. Frequent updates, differing strengths in speed versus capability, and upcoming November deadlines sustain the uncertainty, as any new frontier demonstration could reorder trader consensus before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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