Anthropic's strong positioning stems from its Claude Opus 4.8 and related models like Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which have topped independent leaderboards such as LMArena and harder variants of SWE-Bench for coding accuracy, reasoning, and human preference evaluations in mid-2026 releases. These capabilities have created a clear edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in recent benchmarks, driving the 85.5% implied probability as traders weigh demonstrated performance against the short timeline to end of October. While new model drops from competitors or capability shifts could still influence outcomes, current sentiment reflects Anthropic's consistent lead in frontier large language model evaluations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 86%
Google 5.7%
OpenAI 5.1%
SpaceXAI 3.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
86%
6%
OpenAI
5%
SpaceXAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Meituan
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Microsoft
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 5.7%
OpenAI 5.1%
SpaceXAI 3.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
$4,876 Vol.
86%
$190 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$207 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$315 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$264 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$211 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$219 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$202 Vol.
1%
Meta
$197 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$232 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$224 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$208 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$187 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$181 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$201 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$214 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$234 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$214 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$214 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$214 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$202 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's strong positioning stems from its Claude Opus 4.8 and related models like Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which have topped independent leaderboards such as LMArena and harder variants of SWE-Bench for coding accuracy, reasoning, and human preference evaluations in mid-2026 releases. These capabilities have created a clear edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in recent benchmarks, driving the 85.5% implied probability as traders weigh demonstrated performance against the short timeline to end of October. While new model drops from competitors or capability shifts could still influence outcomes, current sentiment reflects Anthropic's consistent lead in frontier large language model evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$9,206Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's strong positioning stems from its Claude Opus 4.8 and related models like Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which have topped independent leaderboards such as LMArena and harder variants of SWE-Bench for coding accuracy, reasoning, and human preference evaluations in mid-2026 releases. These capabilities have created a clear edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in recent benchmarks, driving the 85.5% implied probability as traders weigh demonstrated performance against the short timeline to end of October. While new model drops from competitors or capability shifts could still influence outcomes, current sentiment reflects Anthropic's consistent lead in frontier large language model evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$9,206Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's strong positioning stems from its Claude Opus 4.8 and related models like Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which have topped independent leaderboards such as LMArena and harder variants of SWE-Bench for coding accuracy, reasoning, and human preference evaluations in mid-2026 releases. These capabilities have created a clear edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in recent benchmarks, driving the 85.5% implied probability as traders weigh demonstrated performance against the short timeline to end of October. While new model drops from competitors or capability shifts could still influence outcomes, current sentiment reflects Anthropic's consistent lead in frontier large language model evaluations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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