Ongoing bilateral dialogues between Manila and Beijing, including maritime affairs talks in January 2026, alongside continued Philippine-U.S. joint exercises such as Balikatan in April-May 2026, have reinforced mutual restraint and deterred escalation into open conflict. China has responded with naval and air patrols near Scarborough Shoal and other features but maintained grey-zone tactics like water cannon use and vessel maneuvers rather than direct strikes. Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and allied presence further signal deterrence without crossing into armed hostilities. These developments sustain trader expectations that no full military clash will occur before 2027, even as regional tensions persist through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$356,126 Vol.
$356,126 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$356,126 Vol.
$356,126 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing bilateral dialogues between Manila and Beijing, including maritime affairs talks in January 2026, alongside continued Philippine-U.S. joint exercises such as Balikatan in April-May 2026, have reinforced mutual restraint and deterred escalation into open conflict. China has responded with naval and air patrols near Scarborough Shoal and other features but maintained grey-zone tactics like water cannon use and vessel maneuvers rather than direct strikes. Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and allied presence further signal deterrence without crossing into armed hostilities. These developments sustain trader expectations that no full military clash will occur before 2027, even as regional tensions persist through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$356,126Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing bilateral dialogues between Manila and Beijing, including maritime affairs talks in January 2026, alongside continued Philippine-U.S. joint exercises such as Balikatan in April-May 2026, have reinforced mutual restraint and deterred escalation into open conflict. China has responded with naval and air patrols near Scarborough Shoal and other features but maintained grey-zone tactics like water cannon use and vessel maneuvers rather than direct strikes. Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and allied presence further signal deterrence without crossing into armed hostilities. These developments sustain trader expectations that no full military clash will occur before 2027, even as regional tensions persist through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$356,126Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral dialogues between Manila and Beijing, including maritime affairs talks in January 2026, alongside continued Philippine-U.S. joint exercises such as Balikatan in April-May 2026, have reinforced mutual restraint and deterred escalation into open conflict. China has responded with naval and air patrols near Scarborough Shoal and other features but maintained grey-zone tactics like water cannon use and vessel maneuvers rather than direct strikes. Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and allied presence further signal deterrence without crossing into armed hostilities. These developments sustain trader expectations that no full military clash will occur before 2027, even as regional tensions persist through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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