Trader consensus prices Jimmy Lai's release by June 30 at just 6.1%, reflecting the finality of his February 2026 20-year sentence on national security charges for conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and publish seditious material, after his legal team opted against appeal in early March, exhausting judicial remedies. Hong Kong authorities continue enforcing the Beijing-imposed National Security Law, recently seeking to seize over $16 million in Lai's assets as of April. While U.S. President Trump announced on May 12 he will raise Lai's case—likening it to past controversies—during upcoming summit talks with Xi Jinping, alongside activist pressure and unverified prisoner exchange rumors, no official Hong Kong or Chinese signals indicate imminent humanitarian parole or pardon before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$181,380 Vol.
$181,380 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$181,380 Vol.
$181,380 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices Jimmy Lai's release by June 30 at just 6.1%, reflecting the finality of his February 2026 20-year sentence on national security charges for conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and publish seditious material, after his legal team opted against appeal in early March, exhausting judicial remedies. Hong Kong authorities continue enforcing the Beijing-imposed National Security Law, recently seeking to seize over $16 million in Lai's assets as of April. While U.S. President Trump announced on May 12 he will raise Lai's case—likening it to past controversies—during upcoming summit talks with Xi Jinping, alongside activist pressure and unverified prisoner exchange rumors, no official Hong Kong or Chinese signals indicate imminent humanitarian parole or pardon before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Volume
$181,380Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices Jimmy Lai's release by June 30 at just 6.1%, reflecting the finality of his February 2026 20-year sentence on national security charges for conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and publish seditious material, after his legal team opted against appeal in early March, exhausting judicial remedies. Hong Kong authorities continue enforcing the Beijing-imposed National Security Law, recently seeking to seize over $16 million in Lai's assets as of April. While U.S. President Trump announced on May 12 he will raise Lai's case—likening it to past controversies—during upcoming summit talks with Xi Jinping, alongside activist pressure and unverified prisoner exchange rumors, no official Hong Kong or Chinese signals indicate imminent humanitarian parole or pardon before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$181,380Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices Jimmy Lai's release by June 30 at just 6.1%, reflecting the finality of his February 2026 20-year sentence on national security charges for conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and publish seditious material, after his legal team opted against appeal in early March, exhausting judicial remedies. Hong Kong authorities continue enforcing the Beijing-imposed National Security Law, recently seeking to seize over $16 million in Lai's assets as of April. While U.S. President Trump announced on May 12 he will raise Lai's case—likening it to past controversies—during upcoming summit talks with Xi Jinping, alongside activist pressure and unverified prisoner exchange rumors, no official Hong Kong or Chinese signals indicate imminent humanitarian parole or pardon before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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