Elevated May 2026 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year, driven by higher oil prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted Bank of Korea trader sentiment toward possible tightening ahead of the August decision. The central bank’s May hold at 2.50% came with upward revisions to 2026 inflation (to 2.7%) and GDP growth (to 2.6%) forecasts under new Governor Shin Hyun-song, alongside dot-plot signals favoring rates near 3.00% within six months. This creates tight competition between no-change (45.5%) and 25-basis-point hike (44.5%) outcomes, as resilient semiconductor exports support growth while currency weakness and core inflation at 2.5% heighten hawkish risks; a 25-basis-point cut (41.0%) remains viable only if incoming data show rapid cooling. Key swing factors include June-July inflation prints, oil price stability, and any FOMC signals influencing capital flows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque de Corée en août ?
Décision de la Banque de Corée en août ?
25 bps hike 46%
25 bps cut 42%
50+ bps hike 18%
50+ bps cut 4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
26 août 2026
50+ bps cut
4%
25 bps cut
42%
No Change
46%
25 bps hike
46%
50+ bps hike
18%
25 bps hike 46%
25 bps cut 42%
50+ bps hike 18%
50+ bps cut 4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
26 août 2026
50+ bps cut
$1,164 Vol.
4%
25 bps cut
$17 Vol.
42%
No Change
$94 Vol.
46%
25 bps hike
$17 Vol.
46%
50+ bps hike
$16 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.Elevated May 2026 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year, driven by higher oil prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted Bank of Korea trader sentiment toward possible tightening ahead of the August decision. The central bank’s May hold at 2.50% came with upward revisions to 2026 inflation (to 2.7%) and GDP growth (to 2.6%) forecasts under new Governor Shin Hyun-song, alongside dot-plot signals favoring rates near 3.00% within six months. This creates tight competition between no-change (45.5%) and 25-basis-point hike (44.5%) outcomes, as resilient semiconductor exports support growth while currency weakness and core inflation at 2.5% heighten hawkish risks; a 25-basis-point cut (41.0%) remains viable only if incoming data show rapid cooling. Key swing factors include June-July inflation prints, oil price stability, and any FOMC signals influencing capital flows.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Marché ouvert : May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,309Date de fin
26 août 2026Marché ouvert
May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.Elevated May 2026 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year, driven by higher oil prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted Bank of Korea trader sentiment toward possible tightening ahead of the August decision. The central bank’s May hold at 2.50% came with upward revisions to 2026 inflation (to 2.7%) and GDP growth (to 2.6%) forecasts under new Governor Shin Hyun-song, alongside dot-plot signals favoring rates near 3.00% within six months. This creates tight competition between no-change (45.5%) and 25-basis-point hike (44.5%) outcomes, as resilient semiconductor exports support growth while currency weakness and core inflation at 2.5% heighten hawkish risks; a 25-basis-point cut (41.0%) remains viable only if incoming data show rapid cooling. Key swing factors include June-July inflation prints, oil price stability, and any FOMC signals influencing capital flows.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Volume
$1,309Date de fin
26 août 2026Marché ouvert
May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year, driven by higher oil prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted Bank of Korea trader sentiment toward possible tightening ahead of the August decision. The central bank’s May hold at 2.50% came with upward revisions to 2026 inflation (to 2.7%) and GDP growth (to 2.6%) forecasts under new Governor Shin Hyun-song, alongside dot-plot signals favoring rates near 3.00% within six months. This creates tight competition between no-change (45.5%) and 25-basis-point hike (44.5%) outcomes, as resilient semiconductor exports support growth while currency weakness and core inflation at 2.5% heighten hawkish risks; a 25-basis-point cut (41.0%) remains viable only if incoming data show rapid cooling. Key swing factors include June-July inflation prints, oil price stability, and any FOMC signals influencing capital flows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes