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Politique·Récompenses

Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026

icon for Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026
Politique·Récompenses

Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026

Donald Trump 9%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.8%

UNRWA 4.7%

Polymarket

$17,060,670 Vol.

Donald Trump 9%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.8%

UNRWA 4.7%

Polymarket

$17,060,670 Vol.

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$2,982,181 Vol.

9%

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$155,220 Vol.

8%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$465,609 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$1,945,480 Vol.

5%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$610,453 Vol.

4%

icon for Pope Leo XIV

Pope Leo XIV

$697,853 Vol.

3%

icon for La Cour internationale de Justice

La Cour internationale de Justice

$759,240 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$543,359 Vol.

2%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,130,881 Vol.

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,184,080 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$888,480 Vol.

1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$696,139 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$925,676 Vol.

1%

icon for Titre de l’élément de groupe : António Guterres

Titre de l’élément de groupe : António Guterres

$406,527 Vol.

1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$442,439 Vol.

1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$802,206 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$487,694 Vol.

1%

icon for Vladimir Poutine

Vladimir Poutine

$727,493 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$716,629 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$493,033 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented field following the Norwegian Nobel Institute's April 30 disclosure of 287 nominations for the 2026 Peace Prize, with Donald Trump holding a slim 8.5% implied probability edge over Yulia Navalnaya at 7.5% and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 5.8%, amid diverse global hotspots. Trump's lead stems from speculation around his high-profile diplomatic overtures in Ukraine and the Middle East, contrasting Navalnaya's rising symbol of Russian dissidence and Zelenskyy's wartime resilience narrative. UNRWA and Qatar's emir trail on humanitarian and mediation efforts in Gaza, while ICJ gains from recent international justice rulings. With no overwhelming frontrunner six months from the October announcement, breakthroughs in ceasefires or legal precedents could decisively shift the closely contested dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,060,670
Date de fin
10 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented field following the Norwegian Nobel Institute's April 30 disclosure of 287 nominations for the 2026 Peace Prize, with Donald Trump holding a slim 8.5% implied probability edge over Yulia Navalnaya at 7.5% and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 5.8%, amid diverse global hotspots. Trump's lead stems from speculation around his high-profile diplomatic overtures in Ukraine and the Middle East, contrasting Navalnaya's rising symbol of Russian dissidence and Zelenskyy's wartime resilience narrative. UNRWA and Qatar's emir trail on humanitarian and mediation efforts in Gaza, while ICJ gains from recent international justice rulings. With no overwhelming frontrunner six months from the October announcement, breakthroughs in ceasefires or legal precedents could decisively shift the closely contested dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,060,670
Date de fin
10 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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Questions fréquentes

« Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 20 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Donald Trump » à 9%, suivi de « Yulia Navalnaya » à 8%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 9¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 9% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » a généré $17.1 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Oct 16, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 », parcourez les 20 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » est « Donald Trump » à seulement 9%, avec « Yulia Navalnaya » juste derrière à 8%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.