Russia’s consistent refusal to engage in direct leader-level talks without first securing maximalist territorial and security demands continues to anchor trader expectations that no Putin-Zelenskyy meeting will occur by the end of August. Kremlin statements in mid-August reiterated unwillingness to accept any ceasefire freezing current lines or limited moratoriums on Black Sea strikes, even as Ukrainian proposals for renewed negotiations and U.S. shuttle diplomacy remain on the table. Ongoing battlefield exchanges, including recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure and Russian advances, have not produced the battlefield or diplomatic shifts needed to force an immediate summit. The extremely short remaining window before the deadline reinforces the near-certain consensus reflected in current pricing. Late-stage developments such as a sudden U.S.-brokered breakthrough, a major escalation prompting emergency diplomacy, or an unexpected announcement from either capital remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before resolution.