US diplomatic efforts to arrange trilateral technical-level talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States by late October 2026 have not produced a confirmed leaders’ summit, reflecting Moscow’s repeated reluctance to commit to direct Zelenskyy-Putin meetings outside Russian territory. Putin has consistently signaled preference for talks only on terms including territorial recognition and Ukrainian neutrality, while continuing military operations and rejecting neutral-venue proposals such as the UAE or Switzerland. Prior rounds of lower-level discussions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva yielded no breakthrough on core issues. Trader consensus on no meeting before 2027 rests on these entrenched positions and lack of scheduled high-level engagement. A rapid US-mediated shift yielding a leaders’ summit in a neutral location before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter the current pricing.