Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s constitutional two-term limit, with the next scheduled election no later than May 2028. Recent statements from the president and AKP officials, alongside the absence of a parliamentary supermajority needed for constitutional changes or early elections that would reset term limits, reinforce expectations that he will remain in office well beyond the end of 2026. Opposition parties weakened by legal proceedings have not mounted a viable challenge capable of triggering resignation, impeachment, or a snap vote before the December 2026 cutoff. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” probability aligns with these structural and political realities, as no major diplomatic, economic, or institutional developments in the past several months have altered the timeline for a leadership transition.