The closely contested 50% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election reflects competing mobilization dynamics ahead of a polarized contest. AfD leads recent polls near 36% while the governing SPD trails at around 29%, with other parties clustered near the 5% threshold, prompting speculation over anti-AfD countermobilization versus AfD supporter engagement. Recent state elections elsewhere in Germany showed turnout rising several points, driven by similar high-stakes coalition questions and first-time voters. Key variables that could shift probabilities include final-week campaign intensity, media focus on coalition scenarios, or last-minute polling shifts that alter perceptions of competitiveness, alongside standard factors such as weather and procedural turnout efforts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlections parlementaires dans le Mecklembourg-Poméranie-Occidentale : participation à la hausse ou à la baisse ?
Élections parlementaires dans le Mecklembourg-Poméranie-Occidentale : participation à la hausse ou à la baisse ?
En hausse
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
En hausse
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely contested 50% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election reflects competing mobilization dynamics ahead of a polarized contest. AfD leads recent polls near 36% while the governing SPD trails at around 29%, with other parties clustered near the 5% threshold, prompting speculation over anti-AfD countermobilization versus AfD supporter engagement. Recent state elections elsewhere in Germany showed turnout rising several points, driven by similar high-stakes coalition questions and first-time voters. Key variables that could shift probabilities include final-week campaign intensity, media focus on coalition scenarios, or last-minute polling shifts that alter perceptions of competitiveness, alongside standard factors such as weather and procedural turnout efforts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely contested 50% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election reflects competing mobilization dynamics ahead of a polarized contest. AfD leads recent polls near 36% while the governing SPD trails at around 29%, with other parties clustered near the 5% threshold, prompting speculation over anti-AfD countermobilization versus AfD supporter engagement. Recent state elections elsewhere in Germany showed turnout rising several points, driven by similar high-stakes coalition questions and first-time voters. Key variables that could shift probabilities include final-week campaign intensity, media focus on coalition scenarios, or last-minute polling shifts that alter perceptions of competitiveness, alongside standard factors such as weather and procedural turnout efforts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 50% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election reflects competing mobilization dynamics ahead of a polarized contest. AfD leads recent polls near 36% while the governing SPD trails at around 29%, with other parties clustered near the 5% threshold, prompting speculation over anti-AfD countermobilization versus AfD supporter engagement. Recent state elections elsewhere in Germany showed turnout rising several points, driven by similar high-stakes coalition questions and first-time voters. Key variables that could shift probabilities include final-week campaign intensity, media focus on coalition scenarios, or last-minute polling shifts that alter perceptions of competitiveness, alongside standard factors such as weather and procedural turnout efforts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
La CDU remportera-t-elle le deuxième plus grand nombre de sièges aux élections parlementaires de 2026 en Mecklembourg-Poméranie-Occidentale ?
33%
Oui
Will SPD win fewer than 18 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
33%
La CDU remportera-t-elle le troisième plus grand nombre de sièges lors des élections parlementaires de 2026 en Mecklembourg-Poméranie-Occidentale ?
33%
Oui
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