Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District remains a competitive general-election contest between incumbent Republican French Hill and Democratic nominee Chris Jones ahead of the November 3, 2026 vote. The district’s mix of suburban and urban voters around Little Rock, combined with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly R+8, has historically favored Republicans yet allows narrower margins when Democratic turnout rises in the capital area. Jones’s May 2026 internal polling lead of three points highlighted his name recognition from the 2022 gubernatorial race and focused messaging on cost-of-living and health-care issues, keeping the race within striking distance. Hill’s primary win and long incumbency provide structural advantages, but limited major campaign developments since the March primaries have left traders pricing a range of modest Republican victory margins as the most probable outcomes while assigning lower probability to larger Democratic edges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRepublican 15-20% 34%
Republican 25%+ 33%
Republican 20-25% 33%
Republican 10-15% 33%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Republican 25%+
33%
Republican 20-25%
33%
Republican 15-20%
34%
Republican 10-15%
33%
Republican 5-10%
33%
Republican 0-5%
33%
Democrat 0-5%
16%
Democrat 5%+
16%
Republican 15-20% 34%
Republican 25%+ 33%
Republican 20-25% 33%
Republican 10-15% 33%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Republican 25%+
$0 Vol.
33%
Republican 20-25%
$0 Vol.
33%
Republican 15-20%
$0 Vol.
34%
Republican 10-15%
$0 Vol.
33%
Republican 5-10%
$0 Vol.
33%
Republican 0-5%
$0 Vol.
33%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Vol.
16%
Democrat 5%+
$0 Vol.
16%
The 2026 AR-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District remains a competitive general-election contest between incumbent Republican French Hill and Democratic nominee Chris Jones ahead of the November 3, 2026 vote. The district’s mix of suburban and urban voters around Little Rock, combined with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly R+8, has historically favored Republicans yet allows narrower margins when Democratic turnout rises in the capital area. Jones’s May 2026 internal polling lead of three points highlighted his name recognition from the 2022 gubernatorial race and focused messaging on cost-of-living and health-care issues, keeping the race within striking distance. Hill’s primary win and long incumbency provide structural advantages, but limited major campaign developments since the March primaries have left traders pricing a range of modest Republican victory margins as the most probable outcomes while assigning lower probability to larger Democratic edges.
The 2026 AR-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 6, 2026, 5:39 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 5:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AR-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District remains a competitive general-election contest between incumbent Republican French Hill and Democratic nominee Chris Jones ahead of the November 3, 2026 vote. The district’s mix of suburban and urban voters around Little Rock, combined with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly R+8, has historically favored Republicans yet allows narrower margins when Democratic turnout rises in the capital area. Jones’s May 2026 internal polling lead of three points highlighted his name recognition from the 2022 gubernatorial race and focused messaging on cost-of-living and health-care issues, keeping the race within striking distance. Hill’s primary win and long incumbency provide structural advantages, but limited major campaign developments since the March primaries have left traders pricing a range of modest Republican victory margins as the most probable outcomes while assigning lower probability to larger Democratic edges.
The 2026 AR-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 5:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District remains a competitive general-election contest between incumbent Republican French Hill and Democratic nominee Chris Jones ahead of the November 3, 2026 vote. The district’s mix of suburban and urban voters around Little Rock, combined with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly R+8, has historically favored Republicans yet allows narrower margins when Democratic turnout rises in the capital area. Jones’s May 2026 internal polling lead of three points highlighted his name recognition from the 2022 gubernatorial race and focused messaging on cost-of-living and health-care issues, keeping the race within striking distance. Hill’s primary win and long incumbency provide structural advantages, but limited major campaign developments since the March primaries have left traders pricing a range of modest Republican victory margins as the most probable outcomes while assigning lower probability to larger Democratic edges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre AR-01 de 2026 avec une avance de 30 à 35 % ?
48%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti républicain gagnera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre AR-03 de 2026 avec une avance de 30 à 35 % ?
34%
Oui
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 40%-45%?
45%
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