Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding 53 Senate seats, yet the market reflects tight odds across 49–51 because the map offers structural advantages while national conditions introduce volatility. Democrats must net four seats for control, with key contests centered on the open North Carolina seat, Susan Collins’s Maine race, and battlegrounds in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska. Recent polling shows tightening dynamics in several states amid low presidential approval, ongoing foreign policy developments, and voter concerns over economic conditions. Primary outcomes and candidate recruitment have clarified some fields, but the limited number of truly competitive races keeps the projected range narrow. Developments such as shifts in voter sentiment on major issues or strong performances by challengers could push results toward the lower or higher end of the distribution reflected in current trading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,298,236 Vol.
$2,298,236 Vol.
≤47
26%
48
10%
49
16%
50
19%
51
16%
52
6%
53
4%
54
2%
55
1%
56
1%
57+
3%
$2,298,236 Vol.
$2,298,236 Vol.
≤47
$76,958 Vol.
26%
48
$29,873 Vol.
10%
49
$25,875 Vol.
16%
50
$79,939 Vol.
19%
51
$175,820 Vol.
16%
52
$524,305 Vol.
6%
53
$32,575 Vol.
4%
54
$728,384 Vol.
2%
55
$413,949 Vol.
1%
56
$159,133 Vol.
1%
57+
$51,425 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding 53 Senate seats, yet the market reflects tight odds across 49–51 because the map offers structural advantages while national conditions introduce volatility. Democrats must net four seats for control, with key contests centered on the open North Carolina seat, Susan Collins’s Maine race, and battlegrounds in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska. Recent polling shows tightening dynamics in several states amid low presidential approval, ongoing foreign policy developments, and voter concerns over economic conditions. Primary outcomes and candidate recruitment have clarified some fields, but the limited number of truly competitive races keeps the projected range narrow. Developments such as shifts in voter sentiment on major issues or strong performances by challengers could push results toward the lower or higher end of the distribution reflected in current trading.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,298,236Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding 53 Senate seats, yet the market reflects tight odds across 49–51 because the map offers structural advantages while national conditions introduce volatility. Democrats must net four seats for control, with key contests centered on the open North Carolina seat, Susan Collins’s Maine race, and battlegrounds in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska. Recent polling shows tightening dynamics in several states amid low presidential approval, ongoing foreign policy developments, and voter concerns over economic conditions. Primary outcomes and candidate recruitment have clarified some fields, but the limited number of truly competitive races keeps the projected range narrow. Developments such as shifts in voter sentiment on major issues or strong performances by challengers could push results toward the lower or higher end of the distribution reflected in current trading.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,298,236Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding 53 Senate seats, yet the market reflects tight odds across 49–51 because the map offers structural advantages while national conditions introduce volatility. Democrats must net four seats for control, with key contests centered on the open North Carolina seat, Susan Collins’s Maine race, and battlegrounds in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska. Recent polling shows tightening dynamics in several states amid low presidential approval, ongoing foreign policy developments, and voter concerns over economic conditions. Primary outcomes and candidate recruitment have clarified some fields, but the limited number of truly competitive races keeps the projected range narrow. Developments such as shifts in voter sentiment on major issues or strong performances by challengers could push results toward the lower or higher end of the distribution reflected in current trading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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