Xi Jinping’s consolidated authority within the Chinese Communist Party, reinforced by the just-concluded fifth plenum on party self-governance and discipline, underpins the 96.3% trader consensus that he will remain in power through the end of 2026. Ongoing anti-corruption purges have thinned potential rivals across the Central Committee and military leadership, while the absence of any designated successor or public challenges ahead of the 2027 National Congress signals continuity rather than transition. Historical precedent of term-limit removal and recent personnel patterns further align with expectations of a fourth term. Even so, low-probability events such as a sudden health crisis, elite fracture, or major external shock could still shift the outcome before year-end.