Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and its institutions, with analysts widely anticipating his confirmation for a fourth term as general secretary at the 21st Party Congress scheduled for autumn 2027. Recent purges of senior military and civilian officials, including multiple Central Military Commission members, have further centralized authority under his leadership while the ongoing fifth plenum emphasizes party discipline and anti-corruption measures ahead of that congress. This environment leaves no visible path to his removal before the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 96.8% for “no” aligns with these structural realities and the absence of succession signals. Health developments or sudden elite realignments remain the primary factors that could still shift the trajectory before 2027.