The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, initially announced April 16, 2026, for 10 days and extended by three weeks on April 23 following U.S.-hosted talks, nears expiration around May 15 amid fragile de-escalation efforts. Recent Hezbollah attacks on Israeli forces have heightened tensions, yet trader consensus—reflected in Polymarket odds favoring announcements by May 16 (60%) or May 17 (63%)—anticipates a short extension driven by U.S. diplomatic pressure on Lebanon for concessions ahead of third-round Washington negotiations Thursday-Friday. Persistent low probabilities for earlier dates underscore caution over violations, with official Israeli statements required for resolution; broader peace talks remain stalled, leaving escalation risks if no deal materializes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsrael Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
NOUVEAU
$104,763 Vol.
17 mai 2026
May 13
<1%
May 14
4%
May 15
29%
May 16
48%
May 17
51%
$104,763 Vol.
May 13
$12,732 Vol.
<1%
May 14
$28,250 Vol.
4%
May 15
$21,526 Vol.
29%
May 16
$23,135 Vol.
48%
May 17
$19,845 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, initially announced April 16, 2026, for 10 days and extended by three weeks on April 23 following U.S.-hosted talks, nears expiration around May 15 amid fragile de-escalation efforts. Recent Hezbollah attacks on Israeli forces have heightened tensions, yet trader consensus—reflected in Polymarket odds favoring announcements by May 16 (60%) or May 17 (63%)—anticipates a short extension driven by U.S. diplomatic pressure on Lebanon for concessions ahead of third-round Washington negotiations Thursday-Friday. Persistent low probabilities for earlier dates underscore caution over violations, with official Israeli statements required for resolution; broader peace talks remain stalled, leaving escalation risks if no deal materializes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$104,763Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, initially announced April 16, 2026, for 10 days and extended by three weeks on April 23 following U.S.-hosted talks, nears expiration around May 15 amid fragile de-escalation efforts. Recent Hezbollah attacks on Israeli forces have heightened tensions, yet trader consensus—reflected in Polymarket odds favoring announcements by May 16 (60%) or May 17 (63%)—anticipates a short extension driven by U.S. diplomatic pressure on Lebanon for concessions ahead of third-round Washington negotiations Thursday-Friday. Persistent low probabilities for earlier dates underscore caution over violations, with official Israeli statements required for resolution; broader peace talks remain stalled, leaving escalation risks if no deal materializes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$104,763Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, initially announced April 16, 2026, for 10 days and extended by three weeks on April 23 following U.S.-hosted talks, nears expiration around May 15 amid fragile de-escalation efforts. Recent Hezbollah attacks on Israeli forces have heightened tensions, yet trader consensus—reflected in Polymarket odds favoring announcements by May 16 (60%) or May 17 (63%)—anticipates a short extension driven by U.S. diplomatic pressure on Lebanon for concessions ahead of third-round Washington negotiations Thursday-Friday. Persistent low probabilities for earlier dates underscore caution over violations, with official Israeli statements required for resolution; broader peace talks remain stalled, leaving escalation risks if no deal materializes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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