Israel maintains its naval blockade of Gaza through repeated interceptions of civilian aid vessels in international waters, as demonstrated by the April 30 seizure of 22 boats from the Global Sumud Flotilla near Crete. This established pattern, coupled with Israel's naval capabilities and policy of diverting or detaining participants, underpins trader expectations that the current flotilla—relaunched from Turkey on May 14 with additional vessels—will not reach Israeli waters by the May 31 deadline. Ongoing diplomatic statements from organizers highlight continued efforts despite prior detentions, yet the short timeline and precedent of preemptive enforcement sustain the 64.5% implied probability favoring non-entry.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa flottille de Gaza entre dans les eaux israéliennes d'ici le 31 mai ?
Oui
$148,881 Vol.
$148,881 Vol.
Oui
$148,881 Vol.
$148,881 Vol.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 20, 2026, 3:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Israel maintains its naval blockade of Gaza through repeated interceptions of civilian aid vessels in international waters, as demonstrated by the April 30 seizure of 22 boats from the Global Sumud Flotilla near Crete. This established pattern, coupled with Israel's naval capabilities and policy of diverting or detaining participants, underpins trader expectations that the current flotilla—relaunched from Turkey on May 14 with additional vessels—will not reach Israeli waters by the May 31 deadline. Ongoing diplomatic statements from organizers highlight continued efforts despite prior detentions, yet the short timeline and precedent of preemptive enforcement sustain the 64.5% implied probability favoring non-entry.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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