Ongoing violations and stalled implementation of the October 2025 ceasefire continue to shape trader assessments of formal cancellation risks. Israeli forces have conducted repeated strikes in Gaza, with the IDF reporting 52 Hamas-linked breaches between mid-October and early November 2026, while Palestinian sources document over 1,600 post-ceasefire deaths and thousands of Israeli actions. Diplomatic efforts, including U.S. pressure on disarmament sequencing and meetings involving mediators such as Jared Kushner and Tony Blair, have produced partial aid flows but no verified progress on phase-two withdrawal or Hamas demilitarization. Israel's domestic political transition, with Gadi Eisenkot tasked to form a government, adds uncertainty over future policy. Humanitarian strains from winter flooding and crossing restrictions further test compliance without triggering official termination by either party.