**Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic efforts center on an initial memorandum of understanding addressing a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons, with nuclear enrichment limits and stockpile issues deferred to follow-on talks.** As of mid-June 2026, reports indicate these subsequent negotiations would span roughly 60 days after any framework signing, placing a firm commitment to end uranium enrichment well beyond July 31. Iran’s leadership has repeatedly identified retention of domestic enrichment rights as a core red line, with Supreme Leader directives against transferring highly enriched material abroad and recent statements rejecting long-term moratoriums such as the previously discussed 20-year freeze. US positions emphasize verifiable limits or suspension of enrichment activities alongside resolution of Iran’s approximately 440 kg stockpile enriched to 60 percent, much of which survived prior strikes on nuclear facilities. While indirect talks mediated through Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan have produced incremental progress on non-nuclear elements, core enrichment disputes remain unresolved, supporting trader consensus that a binding Iranian agreement to fully end enrichment is unlikely within the narrow July 31 window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
$45,019 Vol.
$45,019 Vol.
$45,019 Vol.
$45,019 Vol.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic efforts center on an initial memorandum of understanding addressing a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons, with nuclear enrichment limits and stockpile issues deferred to follow-on talks.** As of mid-June 2026, reports indicate these subsequent negotiations would span roughly 60 days after any framework signing, placing a firm commitment to end uranium enrichment well beyond July 31. Iran’s leadership has repeatedly identified retention of domestic enrichment rights as a core red line, with Supreme Leader directives against transferring highly enriched material abroad and recent statements rejecting long-term moratoriums such as the previously discussed 20-year freeze. US positions emphasize verifiable limits or suspension of enrichment activities alongside resolution of Iran’s approximately 440 kg stockpile enriched to 60 percent, much of which survived prior strikes on nuclear facilities. While indirect talks mediated through Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan have produced incremental progress on non-nuclear elements, core enrichment disputes remain unresolved, supporting trader consensus that a binding Iranian agreement to fully end enrichment is unlikely within the narrow July 31 window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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