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icon for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

icon for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

39% chance
Polymarket

$45,019 Vol.

39% chance
Polymarket

$45,019 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic efforts center on an initial memorandum of understanding addressing a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons, with nuclear enrichment limits and stockpile issues deferred to follow-on talks.** As of mid-June 2026, reports indicate these subsequent negotiations would span roughly 60 days after any framework signing, placing a firm commitment to end uranium enrichment well beyond July 31. Iran’s leadership has repeatedly identified retention of domestic enrichment rights as a core red line, with Supreme Leader directives against transferring highly enriched material abroad and recent statements rejecting long-term moratoriums such as the previously discussed 20-year freeze. US positions emphasize verifiable limits or suspension of enrichment activities alongside resolution of Iran’s approximately 440 kg stockpile enriched to 60 percent, much of which survived prior strikes on nuclear facilities. While indirect talks mediated through Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan have produced incremental progress on non-nuclear elements, core enrichment disputes remain unresolved, supporting trader consensus that a binding Iranian agreement to fully end enrichment is unlikely within the narrow July 31 window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.

An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$45,019
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic efforts center on an initial memorandum of understanding addressing a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons, with nuclear enrichment limits and stockpile issues deferred to follow-on talks.** As of mid-June 2026, reports indicate these subsequent negotiations would span roughly 60 days after any framework signing, placing a firm commitment to end uranium enrichment well beyond July 31. Iran’s leadership has repeatedly identified retention of domestic enrichment rights as a core red line, with Supreme Leader directives against transferring highly enriched material abroad and recent statements rejecting long-term moratoriums such as the previously discussed 20-year freeze. US positions emphasize verifiable limits or suspension of enrichment activities alongside resolution of Iran’s approximately 440 kg stockpile enriched to 60 percent, much of which survived prior strikes on nuclear facilities. While indirect talks mediated through Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan have produced incremental progress on non-nuclear elements, core enrichment disputes remain unresolved, supporting trader consensus that a binding Iranian agreement to fully end enrichment is unlikely within the narrow July 31 window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.

An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$45,020
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 39% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 39¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 39% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? » a généré $45K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le May 25, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? » est de 39% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 39% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.